Praise be to Lord Satoshi that time and compounding interest exist regardless of who you are.
Even if you are a government, there are only two ways to pay for stuff, using savings or debt. For a government, savings equates to taxes. Taxes are not very popular, but spending is. Therefore, when handing out goodies to the plebes and patricians, politicians prefer...
There’s Nothing more calming than the fundamentally backed patterns A.H. Lays out for us every month to help filter out the noise. Thank you Arthur for your service.
Really enjoyed this one, thanks ! especially your framing of the SRF as stealth QE
I had a few follow-ups I’d love your take on:
Inflation link: you treat the creation of money ex nihilo as necessarily inflationary. But many argue the relationship is less linear and that it depends on where the new money lands (financial assets vs. consumer demand) and on global dollar demand. What makes you sure stealth QE automatically means sustained CPI inflation, rather than just higher asset prices and debt monetization?
Structural inflation: some economists (don’t remember their names I admit 😁) suggest we may have entered a regime where 3–4% inflation is the new equilibrium. Kind of a side-effect of deglobalization, fiscal dominance, and energy transition spending. If that’s true, how does it alter your Bitcoin thesis? Does “moderate but permanent” inflation still drive BTC structurally higher, or do you think we need visible monetary panic for the next leg up?
Trust spiral: if money ultimately represents trust in the issuer, what do you see as the actual constraint on governments perpetually rolling debt? Political will? Confidence crises? Do you think there’s a definable tipping point where the “trust premium” in the USD starts eroding, or is the global demand for dollar liquidity self-reinforcing until an alternative settlement layer is liquid enough?
Curious how you’d think about these longer-term dynamics beyond the immediate repo plumbing.
There’s Nothing more calming than the fundamentally backed patterns A.H. Lays out for us every month to help filter out the noise. Thank you Arthur for your service.
Thanks, as always. Did you mean "Will US President Trump cut taxes to fund the deficit?" or "raise"?.
خیلی عالی تحلیل کرذی
so what determine when will the govnt back to work?
Really enjoyed this one, thanks ! especially your framing of the SRF as stealth QE
I had a few follow-ups I’d love your take on:
Inflation link: you treat the creation of money ex nihilo as necessarily inflationary. But many argue the relationship is less linear and that it depends on where the new money lands (financial assets vs. consumer demand) and on global dollar demand. What makes you sure stealth QE automatically means sustained CPI inflation, rather than just higher asset prices and debt monetization?
Structural inflation: some economists (don’t remember their names I admit 😁) suggest we may have entered a regime where 3–4% inflation is the new equilibrium. Kind of a side-effect of deglobalization, fiscal dominance, and energy transition spending. If that’s true, how does it alter your Bitcoin thesis? Does “moderate but permanent” inflation still drive BTC structurally higher, or do you think we need visible monetary panic for the next leg up?
Trust spiral: if money ultimately represents trust in the issuer, what do you see as the actual constraint on governments perpetually rolling debt? Political will? Confidence crises? Do you think there’s a definable tipping point where the “trust premium” in the USD starts eroding, or is the global demand for dollar liquidity self-reinforcing until an alternative settlement layer is liquid enough?
Curious how you’d think about these longer-term dynamics beyond the immediate repo plumbing.
So are you saying the 4-year bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant?
This consequences you have mentioned should work the same way for Gold as they are supposed to work for crypto, right?
Another Steamy Insight
Might Bessent be capitalizing on dollar shortage to shove stablecoins down the Eurodollar market?
زور جالب بو بژیت
很有价值，谢谢你
One again Brother Hayes had made my day... Thank you for this essay...
https://youtube.com/shorts/QMEGIE9C3oU?si=q-blR1Kv9r_RNeG1
Thank you for your insights. Debasement is real.