(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Always enjoy these reads but tracking back to recent previous articles, we’ve gone from a total banking collapse (didn’t happen), to a drain of the TGA ($1Tn) also not happening and now we have a QT reducing/RRP et al = QE of $35bn p/m and a stealth FDIC of again non-TBTF banking collapse. Wrt to dates it’s gone from a near-post halving LFG to now a grind higher from Aug after a summer of chop chop. I repeat I always enjoy these reads but I just hope people don’t take it as biblical reading and always check the trend of messaging offered within these articles over time, aka nobody knows wtf is going to happen really. GL to all.
Looks to me might be in a Wycoff distribution until August with the potential UTAD hitting his 70k at least if not my (+4500 for each new ATH since 2021 also Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio theory top[1]) ~79k, then a deflationary impulse crashing the markets akin to May/Jun1 2021 before the looming 2021 second top by February 2025. DXY is breaking out same as 2021, but the sideways chop allow for the final run into the second top. Some facets are out-of-phase because of different environment (high interest rates, inflation, depleted consumer) and goals now (keep it afloat through the summer for the elections). This blog post may explain how they kick the can until August.
[1] Second top in 2021 was ostensibly not the top. It was wave B of an A-B-C Expanded Flat correction. My posited second top in 2025 would ostensibly not be the top, but again wave B of a larger Expanded Flat. If measure timing from first top (i.e. the top) in 2021, then this cycle is not left translated and right on schedule. Bitcoin is getting very weird.
Your blogs are my reality check wrapped in wit and wisdom! Your ability to blend raw truth with intellect, rooted in historical facts, is captivating and insightful. I especially enjoy your fearless 'label' of certain characters, adding a spicy kick to your already flavorful narratives. Keep it real, keep it sassy—rooted in historical facts! Your readers love it!
Appreciate your response. Are your currently in the Alameda or cContra Costa county where area code 510 exists? If so, prefer to meet in person and bow my humble head like a monk to thank you for your professional integrity, intellectually explaining what's really going on in simple words and your patience in educating your audience.
Prefer direct conversation 415.635.8500.
PS: WhatsApp is known as Scammers, Impersonators communication platform.
This leads to money printing because the FDIC’s insurance fund doesn’t have $6.7 trillion. Maybe they need to ask CZ for advice because funds ain’t SAFU.
Great and insightful stuff as always Arthur! Here is a challenge for which I believe you are the most forthright and qualified market participant able to debunk or verify what follows.
Paul Craig Roberts have read and analysed this book he then wrote in three articles on his blog https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/04/11/the-great-dispossession/ what he believes the contents of the book means for investors. He titled the articles "The Great Dispossession" Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3. If David Rogers Webb findings is true and regulations are in place by stealth, then what does this mean for all investors?
Arthur what is the possibility that Yellen front loads TGA spend down to accelerate summer liquidity, then waits to replenish at the long-end in September to force a useful crisis situation just in time for mail-in balloting.
Always enjoy these reads but tracking back to recent previous articles, we’ve gone from a total banking collapse (didn’t happen), to a drain of the TGA ($1Tn) also not happening and now we have a QT reducing/RRP et al = QE of $35bn p/m and a stealth FDIC of again non-TBTF banking collapse. Wrt to dates it’s gone from a near-post halving LFG to now a grind higher from Aug after a summer of chop chop. I repeat I always enjoy these reads but I just hope people don’t take it as biblical reading and always check the trend of messaging offered within these articles over time, aka nobody knows wtf is going to happen really. GL to all.
Can you guide me to the articles that indicate a total banking collapse and the drain of the TGA?
Thank you!
This will be a good time for you to read the back articles and build a chronological story for yourself - don’t be lazy.
Looks to me might be in a Wycoff distribution until August with the potential UTAD hitting his 70k at least if not my (+4500 for each new ATH since 2021 also Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio theory top[1]) ~79k, then a deflationary impulse crashing the markets akin to May/Jun1 2021 before the looming 2021 second top by February 2025. DXY is breaking out same as 2021, but the sideways chop allow for the final run into the second top. Some facets are out-of-phase because of different environment (high interest rates, inflation, depleted consumer) and goals now (keep it afloat through the summer for the elections). This blog post may explain how they kick the can until August.
[1] Second top in 2021 was ostensibly not the top. It was wave B of an A-B-C Expanded Flat correction. My posited second top in 2025 would ostensibly not be the top, but again wave B of a larger Expanded Flat. If measure timing from first top (i.e. the top) in 2021, then this cycle is not left translated and right on schedule. Bitcoin is getting very weird.
King Arthur — why are you buying Solana when you said on a podcast “good luck being the ETH of this cycle!!”
For the same reason he buys doggie coins, pumpamentals not fundamentals
eth mk is 360ish B$, up to 1T, maybe 1.2?
sol is 60ish B$, upside to 0.5,0.6T.... how can you not drop some moneis into dis horse? ;)
Scaling narrative is one of the FOMO themes of this cycle. ETH to $5 - 7k, SOL north of 350, perhaps even 667.
And when Cardano fulfills their scaling plans soon? Both ETH:BTC and ADA:BTC are at long-term support if one knows how to draw a trend line.
Altcoin season begins post-halving when BTC makes a new ATH. Check. Check.
Your blogs are my reality check wrapped in wit and wisdom! Your ability to blend raw truth with intellect, rooted in historical facts, is captivating and insightful. I especially enjoy your fearless 'label' of certain characters, adding a spicy kick to your already flavorful narratives. Keep it real, keep it sassy—rooted in historical facts! Your readers love it!
Appreciate your response. Are your currently in the Alameda or cContra Costa county where area code 510 exists? If so, prefer to meet in person and bow my humble head like a monk to thank you for your professional integrity, intellectually explaining what's really going on in simple words and your patience in educating your audience.
Prefer direct conversation 415.635.8500.
PS: WhatsApp is known as Scammers, Impersonators communication platform.
Is this The Authur HAYES?
No
HERE WE GO
Another great piece, love your work.
Good read
@cryptohayes, can't you hire an intern or something to pluck your comments garden? those bot spammers kind of ruin the scenery...
This leads to money printing because the FDIC’s insurance fund doesn’t have $6.7 trillion. Maybe they need to ask CZ for advice because funds ain’t SAFU.
Lmao that was great.
Thank you Arthur.
Great and insightful stuff as always Arthur! Here is a challenge for which I believe you are the most forthright and qualified market participant able to debunk or verify what follows.
I was most alarmed recently when I read the late market participant David Rogers Webb online book "The Great Taking" found at https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/1ee786fb-3c78-4903-9701-d614892d09d6/taking-feb24-screen2.pdf
Paul Craig Roberts have read and analysed this book he then wrote in three articles on his blog https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/04/11/the-great-dispossession/ what he believes the contents of the book means for investors. He titled the articles "The Great Dispossession" Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3. If David Rogers Webb findings is true and regulations are in place by stealth, then what does this mean for all investors?
As always...great read! Thanks Arthur!
Most enjoyable and educational financial read ... thanks for the info and levity.
Great read as always, shill us your shitcoins soon please
Hey Man I love you thanks for the info and tips No Cap!
Arthur what is the possibility that Yellen front loads TGA spend down to accelerate summer liquidity, then waits to replenish at the long-end in September to force a useful crisis situation just in time for mail-in balloting.