(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want.
As ever a nicely well written ‘story’ from Hayes. To say this has a few holes is an understatement. To think you can solve the current hotbed in the Middle East in two paragraphs is laughable tbh, the current anger in countries like Jordan, Egypt and Turkey is at boiling point. If the Zionists continue their genocide in the south do you really think the world (ie the people not the leaders) are just going to watch on ? I think not, if anything the conflict will widen much further, you don’t even mention Hezbollah in your piece who are currently at war with Israel and a huge player here. Your solution is that Middle East leaders will continue taking ‘sweets’ from the US and 100’s of millions of their people will just look on ? Again, I think not. You don’t mention the Yemeni’s that have upped their game and causing issues to shipping routes, that process is just beginning. What if the Egyptians start causing issues at Suez....then talk to me about oil prices. Lastly on this subject to simply rule out Iran because Xi will send an email to them is also astonishing.
Then thinking about the current state of affairs in the US economy, the housing market is on its ass, commercial real estate is even worse, credit markets have literally shut down and the only thing that has propped up the economy is the consumer, which has outstripped their earnings and wage rises by their compulsion to spend, this is now cooling off. Did anyone mention unemployment which is now also rising? Yet you think JP can thread the needle from here, which tbf has happened once (from similar starting points) in 1966 across every other recession since the Great Depression ?
So for your narrative to play out.....you need 2m Palestinians genocide’d and what’s left to be shipped to western countries (I wonder if immigration is a topic in western populaces right now eh?) you also need the world to be silent in its horror of said fact, you also need other sovereign countries to keep eating US sweets, you need the US consumer to keep their spending higher than their earnings and for other major facets of the US economy (currently flashing red across the board) to turn around.......and all of this to happen before an election in the next few months and for the sitting US president to get re-elected from the lowest point he has on his historic approval rating.........but in the meantime buy BTC as #uponly.
Goldman and Binance may have some parallels in terms of corruption but Arthur, you left out two pertinent facts in this telling. Goldman did pay a $3.9B settlement and another 2.6B fine and Goldman's Roger Ng, who put the deal together did swing, with a 10 year sentence. You could say that Blankfein was smart enough to put a few layers between himself and the 1MDB deal, but not imply that Goldman walked away without a big pile of doo-doo on their shoes.
dear Arthur, I am pleased to announce your selection for the Hodler Prize, a new award dedicated to text in all disciplines of the written word: novels, essays, blogs, screenplays... The final vote will take place on April 24 in Paris. I invite you to find out more about the prize and our jury on our substack, https://hodlerprize.substack.com, and I'd love to do an interview with you in January. Looking forward to hearing from you. Have a good one ! Anthony van den Bossche Hodler Prize founder
Thank you, great stuff as always.... I have been waiting for this essay since the 'Benance' saga, because I thought you would shed a light as to whether the CZ and 'Benance' woes have anything to do with the BTC ETF getting approved soon. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
As ever a nicely well written ‘story’ from Hayes. To say this has a few holes is an understatement. To think you can solve the current hotbed in the Middle East in two paragraphs is laughable tbh, the current anger in countries like Jordan, Egypt and Turkey is at boiling point. If the Zionists continue their genocide in the south do you really think the world (ie the people not the leaders) are just going to watch on ? I think not, if anything the conflict will widen much further, you don’t even mention Hezbollah in your piece who are currently at war with Israel and a huge player here. Your solution is that Middle East leaders will continue taking ‘sweets’ from the US and 100’s of millions of their people will just look on ? Again, I think not. You don’t mention the Yemeni’s that have upped their game and causing issues to shipping routes, that process is just beginning. What if the Egyptians start causing issues at Suez....then talk to me about oil prices. Lastly on this subject to simply rule out Iran because Xi will send an email to them is also astonishing.
Then thinking about the current state of affairs in the US economy, the housing market is on its ass, commercial real estate is even worse, credit markets have literally shut down and the only thing that has propped up the economy is the consumer, which has outstripped their earnings and wage rises by their compulsion to spend, this is now cooling off. Did anyone mention unemployment which is now also rising? Yet you think JP can thread the needle from here, which tbf has happened once (from similar starting points) in 1966 across every other recession since the Great Depression ?
So for your narrative to play out.....you need 2m Palestinians genocide’d and what’s left to be shipped to western countries (I wonder if immigration is a topic in western populaces right now eh?) you also need the world to be silent in its horror of said fact, you also need other sovereign countries to keep eating US sweets, you need the US consumer to keep their spending higher than their earnings and for other major facets of the US economy (currently flashing red across the board) to turn around.......and all of this to happen before an election in the next few months and for the sitting US president to get re-elected from the lowest point he has on his historic approval rating.........but in the meantime buy BTC as #uponly.
The #Benance reference was masterful. Can see that memecoin taking off fr.
Goldman and Binance may have some parallels in terms of corruption but Arthur, you left out two pertinent facts in this telling. Goldman did pay a $3.9B settlement and another 2.6B fine and Goldman's Roger Ng, who put the deal together did swing, with a 10 year sentence. You could say that Blankfein was smart enough to put a few layers between himself and the 1MDB deal, but not imply that Goldman walked away without a big pile of doo-doo on their shoes.
Know that you inspire resilience in countless lives!
Your impact is profound, Arthur.
dear Arthur, I am pleased to announce your selection for the Hodler Prize, a new award dedicated to text in all disciplines of the written word: novels, essays, blogs, screenplays... The final vote will take place on April 24 in Paris. I invite you to find out more about the prize and our jury on our substack, https://hodlerprize.substack.com, and I'd love to do an interview with you in January. Looking forward to hearing from you. Have a good one ! Anthony van den Bossche Hodler Prize founder
Useful analysis
Thank you, great stuff as always.... I have been waiting for this essay since the 'Benance' saga, because I thought you would shed a light as to whether the CZ and 'Benance' woes have anything to do with the BTC ETF getting approved soon. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Excellent as always Arthur. Thank you!
Very interesting! Thanks