14 Comments
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Sebastian's avatar

Arthur. Thought experiment. You have the Fed and Treasury levers for all of 2024. GO.

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Stephen's avatar

Damn good article. Some parts were over my technical head, still good reading. Nice to come across a contrarian view on American politics/power, money and how it goes around. One of the best articles I've read of yours Arthur. Top stuff. Thank you for sharing your views/thoughts.

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Yesbasic's avatar

Damn this is good! Thank you Arthur!

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Derek's avatar

Thank you Arthur! you da boss

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The OC Recording Company's avatar

Arthur Hayes da boss, thank you sir!

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Mehtap Ozkan's avatar

Another total banger! Thank you so much for your writing.

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Sam, the Ikigai Investor.'s avatar

Deadly as ever, Arthur. Quick question; what if the whole market, like you, doesn’t see a recession as possible, given yet more excessive fiscal spending is in the post for 24? Therefore long end bonds aren’t bought, and “inflation” and rates stay higher for longer?

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Fred Nadel's avatar

Arthur,

Found, the "Feels Good Man" video.

Explains the original Pepe meme perfectly.

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Jarheadwho's avatar

Arthur gives us logic and reason with the humor we need during these difficult times. Thank you Arthur!

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fpanz's avatar

Thank you! Can we get a deep dive on Europe and China?

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Alpha31416's avatar

War is peace...

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pcb3's avatar

based and macropilled

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Helmut Stonegaarden's avatar

Question about your comment around ‘owning long term bonds is idiotic’

My view is that holding enough 20 year bonds at ~5% to yield a basic $X a year for living expenses for the next 2 decades is a smart idea, just so you don’t really have to think about needing to work no matter what really happens. I guess the risk is that inflation gets so bad that the purchasing power of that $ amount gets slashed, but that is why you own BTC to hedge.

Curious to hear opinions on this.

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TRADE CRAFTERS's avatar

Bitcoin, with its impending supply halving, appears strategically poised. As fiat mechanisms grapple with their inherent limitations, the alignment of Bitcoin's halving cycle with these macroeconomic events may very well catalyze its ascent. With additional on-ramps like ETFs emerging, the stage is set for a paradigm shift, where digital assets could redefine wealth dynamics.

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