Like Pavlovian dogs, we all believe the correct response to rate cuts is to BTFD. This behavioural response is rooted in the recent memories of Pax Americana’s subdued inflation. Whenever there was a threat of deflation, which is terrible for financial asset holders...
Do you understand that federalized systems of voluntary consistency without eventual global consistency guarantees are not robust solutions for a decentralized social media? In fact, they are ultimately centralized power-makes-right fiat as evidenced by when Gab forked off the network from Mastodon. So much decentralized theater as there is nearly nothing other than the diabolical Bitcoin that is really decentralized (and even it becomes centralized at the end game Antichrist outcome as it is designed to do as the minted block reward declines towards zero). Nostr does not leverage a blockchain for global consistency. This must be rectified. Yet there are no decentralized proof-of-stake blockchains (due to the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as stake). Even Ethereum is run by an oligarchy of 12.
Too much naive, n00b, snowflakes delusion in our ecosystem. If you doubt my technological chops, then visit my blog.
Arthur, our network would love to hear your network's take on the concept of #CryptoBuyout, as opposed to #KKR's Leverage Buyout. If you wish to get your hands dirty, one of our associates needs help with a 1st-in-class deal.
Arthur, you talked about market growth in August and market growth in September. Now you're talking about the market falling. Your words don't mean anything.
Arthur sorry to spam you with multiple comments but you should not sleep on XLM. It is about to do a 12 bagger. Put the 2017 bars pattern fractal on XRP, XLM and LTC and massive breakouts seem imminent. Could your Aptos fixation be an ego problem? You probably want to see yourself as a clairvoyant venture capitalist but you are not well suited for that role, as you are not a life-long s/w dev as I am. You were not having technical discussions with all the OGs back in 2013 as I was. You are also a snowflakes Millennial, which means you lack the seasoned experience in the serious side of s/w development which was and is still predominantly the realm of my X-gen.
You pursued finance, not Silicon Valley nor engineering. I think you should stick to reading charts and not delude yourself that you know enough how to select the best s/w teams and prognosis thereof. DeFi is not the future of crypto. Sorry. Finance is the problem, not the solution.
Arthur are you too fixated on Yellen and missing the elephant in the living room?
I finally figured out where the liquidity might come from for the next surge with expanding breadth. This was the first time the Fed hiked into a bear market. Thus high interest rates all the way back up. Thus so much retail money was locked into MMFs which ostensibly explains why breadth never peaked early as it normally does to signal a looming top. Thus there is $trillions more fuel that can be unlocked for this market still as the Fed drops rates the $1+ trillion of retail in MMFs will pivot out for greater returns in a fledgling breadth thrust in risk-on markets. EVERYBODY HAS THIS ALL WRONG AND ARE GOING TO BE TOTALLY BLINDSIDED BY THE RESILIENCY OF THE RISK-ON MARKETS.
Arthur Hayes explains that he was prematurely bullish in his prior blog. He says the Jackson Hole pivot caused Tbill rates to drop below Reverse Repo rates, causing funds to be moved from Tbills to RRR which is akin to removing liquidity from the system (as Tbills can be leveraged as cash but RRR are sterilized and can only sit at the Fed).
He expects Bitcoin could slow grind down until Fed actually drops the rates. But that also it is possible this rate cut could cause a repeat of the 2023 run up of 10Y bond rates (fear of Fed losing control of inflation) which would force Yellen to spring into liquidity action as she did in 2023.
On this last point, I think perhaps the Sept 10 CPI report dropping massively to 2.5% as expected will avert that 2023 redux. A goldilocks positive contagion would be also an upbeat labor report this Friday in the USA as if fear of recession abate along with CPI plummeting this might send markets rallying to new ATHs.
I believe also the drop in the CPI will be the excuse Yellen needs to start unleashing TGA spending, where she can argue she is not stoking inflation expectations.
I sense an inflection point is coming at any time between now and end of September. Eric Klown recently pointed out that the back half of Septembers are usually positive unlike the first half.
Is Yellen pulling strings to get Kamala elected or simply because she has no other choice if she wants to keep the system going these days? Seems like this is the move regardless of who is in office. Can't stop the gravy train now.
If you're a finance guy / economist or whatevs, how can you call it "free" healthcare and education. Are you not aware of Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman ? Just a question my friend.
Didn't the treasury state a target end of year TGA balance of $700b? It doesn’t seem likely to me that they would drain that especially in the wake of potential debt ceiling crisis in early 2025. July QRA states how many tbills the treasury is selling, but netted with the tbills which are maturing, not clear to me why RRP balances goes down, so agreed on that point. Seems to me liquidity will not expand until debt ceiling is raised in early 2025.
Considering the Treasury intended to start Q4 with $850B (running it up from 750B in Q3 which could partially explain the weak Q3 for crypto), that 700B ending balance will be a net 150B injection in liquidity. Also footnote 4 indicates the level could drop below 700B. In addition to liquidity there appears to be a breadth thrust indicating a potential rotation out of Nvidia into Russel 2000 which historically always correlates to crypto moving higher.
Also there is trillions of retail funds locked up in MMFs. Would declining rates finally push them back into the stonk market to buy the top as they usually do?
P.S. find my other comment on a potential goldilocks scenario which might make that plausible. What recession? Real GDP is no where near a recession.
ADD: Also any black swan crisis such as if international war is escalated requiring a massive ramp up in spending. Remember the debt ceiling is suspended until January 1. They can borrow & spend as much as they want. No wartime incumbent has ever lost reelection.
ADD#2: I have no basis for such an expectation, but what is to stop the Treasury from running the TGA down closer to 0 before replenishing after the election! So the actual net injection of liquidity could plausibly be up to 850B into the election.
It would be extremely irresponsible for the treasury to run down TGA before the debt ceiling is raised next year. They would only do so for extremely political reasons or as a nuclear option to fill a budget hole if one emerges. Certainly not my base case. Not counting on TGA for much if any liquidity in 2024.
What about running it down, and filling it back up while they have no debt ceiling to contend with or just filling it back up with the issuance they already committed to?
Stock prices do not need to remain high the entire quarter for a speculator to profit on a blowoff top into October for example.
Since when has this administration not been undertaking very irresponsible actions? It is as if you and I live in alternate realities. Is it that you think the Treasury department has to maintain the illusion of being non-partisan?
The Bitcoin chart is screaming to me a massive breakout is imminent. So what is the catalyst for that? If you doubt that, I suggest you partake of Blockchain Backer’s latest.
The VIX spike is the 2020 spike repeated! This signaling a massive liquidity event looming. Opinions are like arseholes, but charts tell the story of what is really going on.
Again you apparently are not factoring in that when the Fed drops rates, this will drive money out of money market funds (MMFs) for which there is already evidence of this shift underway:
We are seeing breadth thrusts and interest volatility continues to decline, all of which should be bullish as liquidity rushes out of fixed interest rate investments back into the chase the blowoff breadth top in stonks. Which ALWAYS coincides with a massive move up in Bitcoin.
I am in the caboose waving goodbye to you.
EDIT: this was the first time the Fed hiked into a bear market. Thus high interest rates all the way back up. Thus so much retail money was locked into MMFs which ostensibly explains why breadth never peaked early as it normally does to signal a looming top. Thus there is $trillions more fuel that can be unlocked for this market still. EVERYBODY HAS THIS ALL WRONG AND ARE GOING TO BE TOTALLY BLINDSIDED BY THE RESILIENCY OF THE RISK-ON MARKETS.
Search for the links on web.archive.org. They were archived since 2012.
I believe the Rise of Knowledge, Demise of Finance is more salient to where we are headed. And I like to expound and refine as I have learned so much in the intervening 12 years.
Stay tuned for renewed blogging, once I get my crypto/blog/etc project launched.
suggest you publish on nostr too
Stephen, our network is interested in a Niche eBay-like market place on nostr. We have no programing talent. Ty
Ps. #Time is not an issue.
Do you understand that federalized systems of voluntary consistency without eventual global consistency guarantees are not robust solutions for a decentralized social media? In fact, they are ultimately centralized power-makes-right fiat as evidenced by when Gab forked off the network from Mastodon. So much decentralized theater as there is nearly nothing other than the diabolical Bitcoin that is really decentralized (and even it becomes centralized at the end game Antichrist outcome as it is designed to do as the minted block reward declines towards zero). Nostr does not leverage a blockchain for global consistency. This must be rectified. Yet there are no decentralized proof-of-stake blockchains (due to the inviolable power-law distribution of fungible resources such as stake). Even Ethereum is run by an oligarchy of 12.
Too much naive, n00b, snowflakes delusion in our ecosystem. If you doubt my technological chops, then visit my blog.
Arthur, our network would love to hear your network's take on the concept of #CryptoBuyout, as opposed to #KKR's Leverage Buyout. If you wish to get your hands dirty, one of our associates needs help with a 1st-in-class deal.
https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM
LLP
Arthur, we need young non-sluty XX traders.
http://poetai.substack.com
#Poet9 #BookSluts https://theculturewedeserve.substack.com
Arthur, you talked about market growth in August and market growth in September. Now you're talking about the market falling. Your words don't mean anything.
Your reading comprehension is 3rd grade level, well not even that if one considers what level of SRA I was reading in 3rd grade.
RRP printed -83B today so I think August month end window dressing makes sense - we will see how the rest of the week goes. Posted about it today: https://x.com/gsr6669/status/1831040628521922904?s=46&t=OQkeyq1-8xTrJxURyAkjIw
Saw that too, let’s see.
I recommend you watch Blockchain Backer's latest YT vlog. I think you will find it worthy of your attention. Cheers.
Arthur sorry to spam you with multiple comments but you should not sleep on XLM. It is about to do a 12 bagger. Put the 2017 bars pattern fractal on XRP, XLM and LTC and massive breakouts seem imminent. Could your Aptos fixation be an ego problem? You probably want to see yourself as a clairvoyant venture capitalist but you are not well suited for that role, as you are not a life-long s/w dev as I am. You were not having technical discussions with all the OGs back in 2013 as I was. You are also a snowflakes Millennial, which means you lack the seasoned experience in the serious side of s/w development which was and is still predominantly the realm of my X-gen.
You pursued finance, not Silicon Valley nor engineering. I think you should stick to reading charts and not delude yourself that you know enough how to select the best s/w teams and prognosis thereof. DeFi is not the future of crypto. Sorry. Finance is the problem, not the solution.
Arthur are you too fixated on Yellen and missing the elephant in the living room?
I finally figured out where the liquidity might come from for the next surge with expanding breadth. This was the first time the Fed hiked into a bear market. Thus high interest rates all the way back up. Thus so much retail money was locked into MMFs which ostensibly explains why breadth never peaked early as it normally does to signal a looming top. Thus there is $trillions more fuel that can be unlocked for this market still as the Fed drops rates the $1+ trillion of retail in MMFs will pivot out for greater returns in a fledgling breadth thrust in risk-on markets. EVERYBODY HAS THIS ALL WRONG AND ARE GOING TO BE TOTALLY BLINDSIDED BY THE RESILIENCY OF THE RISK-ON MARKETS.
Arthur Hayes explains that he was prematurely bullish in his prior blog. He says the Jackson Hole pivot caused Tbill rates to drop below Reverse Repo rates, causing funds to be moved from Tbills to RRR which is akin to removing liquidity from the system (as Tbills can be leveraged as cash but RRR are sterilized and can only sit at the Fed).
He expects Bitcoin could slow grind down until Fed actually drops the rates. But that also it is possible this rate cut could cause a repeat of the 2023 run up of 10Y bond rates (fear of Fed losing control of inflation) which would force Yellen to spring into liquidity action as she did in 2023.
On this last point, I think perhaps the Sept 10 CPI report dropping massively to 2.5% as expected will avert that 2023 redux. A goldilocks positive contagion would be also an upbeat labor report this Friday in the USA as if fear of recession abate along with CPI plummeting this might send markets rallying to new ATHs.
I believe also the drop in the CPI will be the excuse Yellen needs to start unleashing TGA spending, where she can argue she is not stoking inflation expectations.
I sense an inflection point is coming at any time between now and end of September. Eric Klown recently pointed out that the back half of Septembers are usually positive unlike the first half.
Is Yellen pulling strings to get Kamala elected or simply because she has no other choice if she wants to keep the system going these days? Seems like this is the move regardless of who is in office. Can't stop the gravy train now.
If you're a finance guy / economist or whatevs, how can you call it "free" healthcare and education. Are you not aware of Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman ? Just a question my friend.
cheers, nice one man!
sir this is a wendy’s
Ironically the RRP dropped by 95bn last 2 days
Didn't the treasury state a target end of year TGA balance of $700b? It doesn’t seem likely to me that they would drain that especially in the wake of potential debt ceiling crisis in early 2025. July QRA states how many tbills the treasury is selling, but netted with the tbills which are maturing, not clear to me why RRP balances goes down, so agreed on that point. Seems to me liquidity will not expand until debt ceiling is raised in early 2025.
Considering the Treasury intended to start Q4 with $850B (running it up from 750B in Q3 which could partially explain the weak Q3 for crypto), that 700B ending balance will be a net 150B injection in liquidity. Also footnote 4 indicates the level could drop below 700B. In addition to liquidity there appears to be a breadth thrust indicating a potential rotation out of Nvidia into Russel 2000 which historically always correlates to crypto moving higher.
Also there is trillions of retail funds locked up in MMFs. Would declining rates finally push them back into the stonk market to buy the top as they usually do?
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2506#_ftn4
P.S. find my other comment on a potential goldilocks scenario which might make that plausible. What recession? Real GDP is no where near a recession.
ADD: Also any black swan crisis such as if international war is escalated requiring a massive ramp up in spending. Remember the debt ceiling is suspended until January 1. They can borrow & spend as much as they want. No wartime incumbent has ever lost reelection.
ADD#2: I have no basis for such an expectation, but what is to stop the Treasury from running the TGA down closer to 0 before replenishing after the election! So the actual net injection of liquidity could plausibly be up to 850B into the election.
It would be extremely irresponsible for the treasury to run down TGA before the debt ceiling is raised next year. They would only do so for extremely political reasons or as a nuclear option to fill a budget hole if one emerges. Certainly not my base case. Not counting on TGA for much if any liquidity in 2024.
Thanks for your thoughts.
What about running it down, and filling it back up while they have no debt ceiling to contend with or just filling it back up with the issuance they already committed to?
Stock prices do not need to remain high the entire quarter for a speculator to profit on a blowoff top into October for example.
Since when has this administration not been undertaking very irresponsible actions? It is as if you and I live in alternate realities. Is it that you think the Treasury department has to maintain the illusion of being non-partisan?
The Bitcoin chart is screaming to me a massive breakout is imminent. So what is the catalyst for that? If you doubt that, I suggest you partake of Blockchain Backer’s latest.
The VIX spike is the 2020 spike repeated! This signaling a massive liquidity event looming. Opinions are like arseholes, but charts tell the story of what is really going on.
https://youtu.be/JJuNFvoZuAs
(MARKETS in the MORNING, 9/4/2024)
https://youtu.be/VwLYzyR_LSw
(HIGH ANTICIPATION as Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market at Historic Timeframe, Growth to Value)
https://youtu.be/jOYvHBmeCiY
(This is a Textbook Bear Trap…)
Again you apparently are not factoring in that when the Fed drops rates, this will drive money out of money market funds (MMFs) for which there is already evidence of this shift underway:
https://youtu.be/EtfpdTjzMl0
(This Opportunity Won’t Come Again on Bitcoin…)
We are seeing breadth thrusts and interest volatility continues to decline, all of which should be bullish as liquidity rushes out of fixed interest rate investments back into the chase the blowoff breadth top in stonks. Which ALWAYS coincides with a massive move up in Bitcoin.
I am in the caboose waving goodbye to you.
EDIT: this was the first time the Fed hiked into a bear market. Thus high interest rates all the way back up. Thus so much retail money was locked into MMFs which ostensibly explains why breadth never peaked early as it normally does to signal a looming top. Thus there is $trillions more fuel that can be unlocked for this market still. EVERYBODY HAS THIS ALL WRONG AND ARE GOING TO BE TOTALLY BLINDSIDED BY THE RESILIENCY OF THE RISK-ON MARKETS.
Hello
I was trying to read
The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally
but both links (on bitcointalk) are inaccessible to me.
can you send me those essays or links to them?
Search for the links on web.archive.org. They were archived since 2012.
I believe the Rise of Knowledge, Demise of Finance is more salient to where we are headed. And I like to expound and refine as I have learned so much in the intervening 12 years.
Stay tuned for renewed blogging, once I get my crypto/blog/etc project launched.
https://web.archive.org/web/20121022232402/http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.html
https://web.archive.org/web/20111123050617/http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html