(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) This is the last of my articles about the intersection of AI and crypto. I gave a short presentation entitled “Double Happiness” on 13 September 2023 at the Token2049 conference in Singapore. Here is a link to the
Arthur, I also have the same opinion as you! I fully support it. Consider such a Lithium - LITH project. They connected the AI to evaluate the NFT, DAO.
Per my comment’s focus on the financial repression thesis in your prior blog 𝘼𝙧𝙚 𝙒𝙚 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙔𝙚𝙩? (https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/are-we-there-yet?comments=true&commentId=41378087), herein you more fully develop the egregious, grotesque, sordid evidence that the normalcy-biased, more subtle (slow boil ’dem frogs) modes of financial repression which have enabled the global dollar reserve currency world order to function, are approaching their Minsky Moment for public assets including bonds and fiat currencies.
There may be one more massive credit bubble but in a non-ZIRP setting because all the synergistic financial repression wells (e.g. China) are fully tapped out aka the marginal-utility-of-debt is egregiously negative (thus the VC model is dead), thus with the frogs lured to ruin by bubbles and the profiteers blocked at the exits to hard assets that would otherwise suck massive capital out of public assets. Ergo the 2025ish timeline for Hotel California-esque (“you can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave”) CBDCs to be live.
The Filecoin choice makes no sense if evaluated in terms of actual use cases — A.I. will not attain decentralization escape velocity at this nascent stage of just trying to find use cases. Yet your fictional narrative might just fly among the FOMO idiots, although I wouldn’t allocate huge size on that speculation. And we can’t rule out some censorship fiasco driving that FOMO. But this seems so highly speculative and so unrealistically forward looking. There’s no well defined customer demographic, no use case waiting in the wings already.
I have another idea (not A.I.) but I can’t tell you (at least not publicly) yet. Because I am launching it. I hope it to generate much more income for participants than Filecoin. Also it might also incorporate a form of proof-of-non-replicated-spacetime and I was the first person on Bitcointalk in 2013 to propose proof-of-storage even before the earliest published papers:
Holy fuck I named both Cosmos and Ethereum!!! 🤯 Come-from-beyond was the developer of IOTA, so he was shadowing me from inception which is why they probably got the Iota name that I had thought of in my Bitmessage group in 2014.
You may have been first to propose storage, but what ever became of your idea? Are you going to move beyond a proposal on your latest idea, that is so great you can't even mention what it is?
Interesting if someone from the old days has come around here? I pretty much signed-out for good in 2019 and have been trying to sort my life out.
1. What became of it. It got filed away in my amnesia stupor of maybe a few hours a day of coherence followed by the remainder of the 24 hour period sleeping or low-energy discombobulated attempts to not waste time laying in bed by trying but failing to really accomplish much of anything by sitting up at the computer.
From 2015 I was in a steeper downhill spiral (than before 2012) until at least 2018, by the Tuberculosis I had ostensibly being carrying since 2011ish, which ostensibly compounded the “incurable”, high-number strain HPV (that typically leads to oral cancer in males) I was gifted in a fateful last rendezvous in 2006. (Not that believe any of that virology sophistry now, but there was some form of infection because I was debilitated.) From 2013 to 2015 ostensibly my youthfulness and athleticism was holding me up, until in 2014 I ballooned up to 125% of my normal weight for no reason at all, which seemed to be the precursor for a health cliff precipice in the second half of 2015. In 2012 I had nearly died of a perforated ulcer that in hindsight was ostensibly due to the disease which had spread into my gut or affected my microbiome and endocrine system. The doctor who treated my ER incident ostensibly fucked me up with some Fluoroquinolone antibiotics that are banned in the EU (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/fluoroquinolone-quinolone-antibiotics-prac-recommends-new-restrictions-use-following-review) because they are known to permanently fuck a person for life. They caused me to lose my olfactory sense and messed up my gut biome. I remember some comment on bitcointalk.org where an apparently knowledgeable (expert?) individual informed me that taking those antibiotics for 21 days basically was the end of my health. So I have maybe had a better outcome than he expected I would. I was stuck in the (noisy a.f.) Philippines, bankrupt and even those who had become wealthy such as former acquaintances Risto Pietilä and Charles Hoskinson couldn’t even spare $10k or offer me a job. (Risto wanted me to come to his castle in Estonia but I had a relationship in the Philippines and I suspected they were doing drugs there.) I had to hustle. I made a few $1000 by being an early Steemit blogger. I never promoted any scam, nor launch some half-ass lie to bail myself out. The doctors in Mindanao messed everything up worse and all they could diagnose was NAFLD. In late 2017, I was gifted enough funds by an angel to travel to Manila and I tried first a battery of tests and an MRI at Makati Medical Center with supposedly the best infectious diseases doctor. They found my vital abdominal organs has cysts but otherwise could make no diagnosis. I traveled to Singapore and they finally diagnosed Tuberculosis via a blood test which was confirmed with a chest x-ray. I tried my best to complete the prescribed 6 month regimen of 5000 mg daily highly liver toxic antibiotics. I had to cease it at just before 5 months, because I was going into anaphylactic shock. This can also explain a lot of my bizarre online behavior around 2016 to 2018 as I was morbidly ill and this known to have many psychological effects including depression and desperation compounding by the fact that I was in dire threat of falling back into abject poverty and not being able to eat as had happened to me back in the mid-1990s during my first stint in the Philippines. So in 2018, I was trying to fight my way back into good health, fighting forehead-on-the-keyboard at 10am very low energy, spiraling into the abyss health if I try to employ caffeine, etc, etc, etc (I spare you all the grotesque details) and it has gradually stabilized and improved over the past years, although to this day I still have metabolic syndrome and endocrine dysfunction. Although it is mostly under control if I can manage to maintain daily dinner-to-dinner fasting and daily gym exercise. I never really lost my athleticism through the entire ordeal. In 2020, I left the Philippines for good. My health mostly worsened from trying to readjust to the U.S. and trying to sort out my diet. For a while I tried eating all the stuff I used to love eating before I left for the Philippines in 2004. This regressed my liver and endocrine system. I would say the breakthrough came in winter 2022/23 in Pattaya. I finally got back on a good diet and exercise regimen, along with the warm, sunny climate. It reaffirmed that the progress I was starting to establish in 2019 was repeatable. Since then I was forced to be all over the countries of S. America because of personal relationship reasons with a Filipina which are outside the scope of what I want to explain publicly. My life is too spread out. This is what happens when you get older, you have kids, an ex, a new relationship, wasted half your life in the Philippines, etc.. I am not making any promises.
2. What will happen now? Heck if I know. I am just trying to be productive.
But at age 58 now, there’s no damn way I have the energy that I had a decade or two ago before I got ill, especially given I am still struggling (a slow process or a few steps forward, then regression a couple of steps, wash, rinse, repeat) to fully normalize my health.
I did reveal quite a bit more in my recent edits to my blog. I am still editing it. That’s all I can offer right at the moment. Apologies if I am a failure in life. Thanks for the probing question. I guess I was going to avoid bringing that up again, but since you asked.
I do not want to be a public personality. I am just doing engineering work. Period.
> > “One of the major cultural difference between Americans and Filipinos is an older Filipino, whose average lifespan is already just over 70, make their peace and are often accepting of death when it comes. Most Americans are prepared to fight for 100 years with every penny they have.“
>
> “lol so true. Actually Filipino culture believe after death is the real life so they don’t mind suffering on earth.”
Actually that is why pain killer relief for terminally ill patients was essentially illegal. I heard patients wailing as they were dying of terminal cancer. Because Filipinos believe suffering is natural and part of life and it is cowardly (and unnecessary expense) to avoid suffering before death. Note this has started to shift a little bit. I was able to beg for two morphine injections over a 48 to 72 hour period of the most excruciating pain I can not possibly describe. Imagine a candle burning the inside of your intestines and abdominal organs non-stop for days with my perforated ulcer. Note it’s not supposed to be possible to survive a perforated ulcer without surgery.
My Filipino doctor wanted to do surgery but I declined. Luckily I did because after the ER/ICU hospitalization, I met a foreigner who will live the rest of his life on morphine because of the Jpop surgery that derelict doctor had performed. I know mine was at least partially perforated because I was leaking stomach acid so bad into my periodontal cavity that I had ascites that resembleda few months pregnant.
Wow. So glad you have mostly made it to the other side of that hellish experience. Without our heath what else is there? I'll check in with your blog. Good luck in your project.
Scprime uses S3 (AWS) architecture for its onboarding of data, which everyone is familiar. Filecoin makes users transfer data in entirely different code on the backend and unknown onboarding on the UI front end.
You might be interested in Bittensor. It's a distributed network for AI resources with specialized subnets for varying AI-related activities e.g. subnet for distributed compute, distributed storage, LLM, generative AI and much more!
Thank you Arthur for the time you take to produce these and share them. And for the pearls like " wagging faster than Michael Lewis’ tongue while fluffing Sam Bankman-Fried". I don't understand your love of the stinky fruit, but I really appreciate your writing.
Hey Arthur, fascinating read. Learnt a ton and enjoyed it! One question: will central banks be limited in QE response in the financial disaster scenario because of inflationary pressure seemingly built into the economic system now? Likely inflation would nose dive initially in this situation but equally likely return quickly due to supply side shortages ? Thanks again for the essay.
decentralized compute ，how about rndr，icp？
Golem (GLM) is the compute provider Aurhur was unable to find.
Next major multiparty computation breakthrough will have it take off. Last breakthrough was 100x improvement. Only need 10x more to be viable.
NuNet is this
"wagging faster than Michael Lewis’ tongue while fluffing Sam Bankman-Fried". this killed me! lol
Valuable content, I took several notes. Thank you!
Arthur, I also have the same opinion as you! I fully support it. Consider such a Lithium - LITH project. They connected the AI to evaluate the NFT, DAO.
QUOTE: “𝘞𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘨𝘰𝘰𝘥𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳 𝘴𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴, 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴, 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴.”
Per my comment’s focus on the financial repression thesis in your prior blog 𝘼𝙧𝙚 𝙒𝙚 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙔𝙚𝙩? (https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/are-we-there-yet?comments=true&commentId=41378087), herein you more fully develop the egregious, grotesque, sordid evidence that the normalcy-biased, more subtle (slow boil ’dem frogs) modes of financial repression which have enabled the global dollar reserve currency world order to function, are approaching their Minsky Moment for public assets including bonds and fiat currencies.
There may be one more massive credit bubble but in a non-ZIRP setting because all the synergistic financial repression wells (e.g. China) are fully tapped out aka the marginal-utility-of-debt is egregiously negative (thus the VC model is dead), thus with the frogs lured to ruin by bubbles and the profiteers blocked at the exits to hard assets that would otherwise suck massive capital out of public assets. Ergo the 2025ish timeline for Hotel California-esque (“you can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave”) CBDCs to be live.
The Filecoin choice makes no sense if evaluated in terms of actual use cases — A.I. will not attain decentralization escape velocity at this nascent stage of just trying to find use cases. Yet your fictional narrative might just fly among the FOMO idiots, although I wouldn’t allocate huge size on that speculation. And we can’t rule out some censorship fiasco driving that FOMO. But this seems so highly speculative and so unrealistically forward looking. There’s no well defined customer demographic, no use case waiting in the wings already.
I have another idea (not A.I.) but I can’t tell you (at least not publicly) yet. Because I am launching it. I hope it to generate much more income for participants than Filecoin. Also it might also incorporate a form of proof-of-non-replicated-spacetime and I was the first person on Bitcointalk in 2013 to propose proof-of-storage even before the earliest published papers:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.msg1711357#msg1711357
https://bitslog.com/2014/11/03/proof-of-local-blockchain-storage/
https://eprint.iacr.org/2018/702.pdf#page=4
Ah so there was a record of when Risto Pietilä and I brainstormed names:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.msg1713943#msg1713943
Holy fuck I named both Cosmos and Ethereum!!! 🤯 Come-from-beyond was the developer of IOTA, so he was shadowing me from inception which is why they probably got the Iota name that I had thought of in my Bitmessage group in 2014.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.msg1716720#msg1716720
Mircea named Cardano.
http://trilema.com/2013/snsa-first-product-the-cardano/
EDIT: c.f. my follow-up: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/kite-or-board?comments=true&commentId=41383074
Filecoin is just another in a long succession of shitcoins like Ethereum and pretty everything that’s not Bitcoin.
https://anonymint1.substack.com/p/decentralized-data-storage-and-delivery
You may have been first to propose storage, but what ever became of your idea? Are you going to move beyond a proposal on your latest idea, that is so great you can't even mention what it is?
Interesting if someone from the old days has come around here? I pretty much signed-out for good in 2019 and have been trying to sort my life out.
1. What became of it. It got filed away in my amnesia stupor of maybe a few hours a day of coherence followed by the remainder of the 24 hour period sleeping or low-energy discombobulated attempts to not waste time laying in bed by trying but failing to really accomplish much of anything by sitting up at the computer.
From 2015 I was in a steeper downhill spiral (than before 2012) until at least 2018, by the Tuberculosis I had ostensibly being carrying since 2011ish, which ostensibly compounded the “incurable”, high-number strain HPV (that typically leads to oral cancer in males) I was gifted in a fateful last rendezvous in 2006. (Not that believe any of that virology sophistry now, but there was some form of infection because I was debilitated.) From 2013 to 2015 ostensibly my youthfulness and athleticism was holding me up, until in 2014 I ballooned up to 125% of my normal weight for no reason at all, which seemed to be the precursor for a health cliff precipice in the second half of 2015. In 2012 I had nearly died of a perforated ulcer that in hindsight was ostensibly due to the disease which had spread into my gut or affected my microbiome and endocrine system. The doctor who treated my ER incident ostensibly fucked me up with some Fluoroquinolone antibiotics that are banned in the EU (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/fluoroquinolone-quinolone-antibiotics-prac-recommends-new-restrictions-use-following-review) because they are known to permanently fuck a person for life. They caused me to lose my olfactory sense and messed up my gut biome. I remember some comment on bitcointalk.org where an apparently knowledgeable (expert?) individual informed me that taking those antibiotics for 21 days basically was the end of my health. So I have maybe had a better outcome than he expected I would. I was stuck in the (noisy a.f.) Philippines, bankrupt and even those who had become wealthy such as former acquaintances Risto Pietilä and Charles Hoskinson couldn’t even spare $10k or offer me a job. (Risto wanted me to come to his castle in Estonia but I had a relationship in the Philippines and I suspected they were doing drugs there.) I had to hustle. I made a few $1000 by being an early Steemit blogger. I never promoted any scam, nor launch some half-ass lie to bail myself out. The doctors in Mindanao messed everything up worse and all they could diagnose was NAFLD. In late 2017, I was gifted enough funds by an angel to travel to Manila and I tried first a battery of tests and an MRI at Makati Medical Center with supposedly the best infectious diseases doctor. They found my vital abdominal organs has cysts but otherwise could make no diagnosis. I traveled to Singapore and they finally diagnosed Tuberculosis via a blood test which was confirmed with a chest x-ray. I tried my best to complete the prescribed 6 month regimen of 5000 mg daily highly liver toxic antibiotics. I had to cease it at just before 5 months, because I was going into anaphylactic shock. This can also explain a lot of my bizarre online behavior around 2016 to 2018 as I was morbidly ill and this known to have many psychological effects including depression and desperation compounding by the fact that I was in dire threat of falling back into abject poverty and not being able to eat as had happened to me back in the mid-1990s during my first stint in the Philippines. So in 2018, I was trying to fight my way back into good health, fighting forehead-on-the-keyboard at 10am very low energy, spiraling into the abyss health if I try to employ caffeine, etc, etc, etc (I spare you all the grotesque details) and it has gradually stabilized and improved over the past years, although to this day I still have metabolic syndrome and endocrine dysfunction. Although it is mostly under control if I can manage to maintain daily dinner-to-dinner fasting and daily gym exercise. I never really lost my athleticism through the entire ordeal. In 2020, I left the Philippines for good. My health mostly worsened from trying to readjust to the U.S. and trying to sort out my diet. For a while I tried eating all the stuff I used to love eating before I left for the Philippines in 2004. This regressed my liver and endocrine system. I would say the breakthrough came in winter 2022/23 in Pattaya. I finally got back on a good diet and exercise regimen, along with the warm, sunny climate. It reaffirmed that the progress I was starting to establish in 2019 was repeatable. Since then I was forced to be all over the countries of S. America because of personal relationship reasons with a Filipina which are outside the scope of what I want to explain publicly. My life is too spread out. This is what happens when you get older, you have kids, an ex, a new relationship, wasted half your life in the Philippines, etc.. I am not making any promises.
2. What will happen now? Heck if I know. I am just trying to be productive.
But at age 58 now, there’s no damn way I have the energy that I had a decade or two ago before I got ill, especially given I am still struggling (a slow process or a few steps forward, then regression a couple of steps, wash, rinse, repeat) to fully normalize my health.
I did reveal quite a bit more in my recent edits to my blog. I am still editing it. That’s all I can offer right at the moment. Apologies if I am a failure in life. Thanks for the probing question. I guess I was going to avoid bringing that up again, but since you asked.
I do not want to be a public personality. I am just doing engineering work. Period.
====
https://www.quora.com/How-would-you-compare-living-in-the-Philippines-with-living-in-Mexico-as-an-expat/answer/Ray-Hart-26?comment_id=366783828&comment_type=2
> > “One of the major cultural difference between Americans and Filipinos is an older Filipino, whose average lifespan is already just over 70, make their peace and are often accepting of death when it comes. Most Americans are prepared to fight for 100 years with every penny they have.“
>
> “lol so true. Actually Filipino culture believe after death is the real life so they don’t mind suffering on earth.”
Actually that is why pain killer relief for terminally ill patients was essentially illegal. I heard patients wailing as they were dying of terminal cancer. Because Filipinos believe suffering is natural and part of life and it is cowardly (and unnecessary expense) to avoid suffering before death. Note this has started to shift a little bit. I was able to beg for two morphine injections over a 48 to 72 hour period of the most excruciating pain I can not possibly describe. Imagine a candle burning the inside of your intestines and abdominal organs non-stop for days with my perforated ulcer. Note it’s not supposed to be possible to survive a perforated ulcer without surgery.
My Filipino doctor wanted to do surgery but I declined. Luckily I did because after the ER/ICU hospitalization, I met a foreigner who will live the rest of his life on morphine because of the Jpop surgery that derelict doctor had performed. I know mine was at least partially perforated because I was leaking stomach acid so bad into my periodontal cavity that I had ascites that resembleda few months pregnant.
Wow. So glad you have mostly made it to the other side of that hellish experience. Without our heath what else is there? I'll check in with your blog. Good luck in your project.
Ty amigo.
>Without data, an AI can’t learn.
This is correct... however not all data storage is created equal.
AI is currently trained on public data. This can easily be obtained today, so offers little commercial value.
Where true value will come with AI is training on private data. That will be an incredible unlock of innovation, creating an incredible opportunity.
However... FIL is not suitable for storing private data.
Most data is structured (not images, videos or documents, but stored in databases). Again FIL sucks as a database.
In web2 there is a huge plethora of differrent storage solutions for building application, with the most valuable being the database.
We need more mature data storage solutions for web3, and I expect AI to be a key catalyst for that innovation.
(Disclaimer: I'm the CEO and co-founder of Verida, the web3 infrastructure for private user datatabases)
Such a good post. New sub
For compute I recommend checking out Akash.
Isn't Chainlink Functions combined with Space and Time the answer to the compute part of the AI equation?
$SHDW for storage and $rndr for compute
Here are some other ideas similar to $FIL
https://twitter.com/Louis_hyper88/status/1711285349799116913
Scprime uses S3 (AWS) architecture for its onboarding of data, which everyone is familiar. Filecoin makes users transfer data in entirely different code on the backend and unknown onboarding on the UI front end.
You might be interested in Bittensor. It's a distributed network for AI resources with specialized subnets for varying AI-related activities e.g. subnet for distributed compute, distributed storage, LLM, generative AI and much more!
Thank you Arthur for the time you take to produce these and share them. And for the pearls like " wagging faster than Michael Lewis’ tongue while fluffing Sam Bankman-Fried". I don't understand your love of the stinky fruit, but I really appreciate your writing.
Filecoin is just another in a long succession of shitcoins like Ethereum and pretty everything that’s not Bitcoin.
https://anonymint1.substack.com/p/decentralized-data-storage-and-delivery
Hey Arthur, fascinating read. Learnt a ton and enjoyed it! One question: will central banks be limited in QE response in the financial disaster scenario because of inflationary pressure seemingly built into the economic system now? Likely inflation would nose dive initially in this situation but equally likely return quickly due to supply side shortages ? Thanks again for the essay.