(Any views expressed here are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Hi Arthur , isn’t gold at 10k + feel too expensive even for retail (jewellery), manufacturing so it brings some unrest + gold mining companies margins too rich to allow countries slap them and new companies arise for competition?
“I thought Trump was for the working white man? Nah, Jimbo, US President Clinton sold your job to China, then Trump got the factories to come back, but the floor is now populated by AI-enabled robot arms owned by Elon. Sorry, you got cucked again, but ICE is hiring!”
2025 looked “weird” only if you treat BTC, gold, and tech as the same trade. Your split makes it click: BTC is the cleanest proxy for dollar liquidity, gold is ripping because sovereigns are hoovering it up to reduce sanction/expropriation risk, and Nasdaq can stay bid if AI spend gets effectively nationalized / policy-supported even while liquidity slows.
This is basically the lane I write in at MacroDecoded:
Tracking the plumbing (what the Fed is doing + liquidity conditions) and translating that into risk regime implications — i.e., “is liquidity actually easing, or are we just telling ourselves a story?”
Quick question for substack finance and crpyto community
What’s your single best “liquidity is turning” tell for BTC. Fed balance sheet direction, front-end funding stress easing, or something else?
Everyone's talking about the crash. Nobody's talking about credit spreads at 2.81% — well below the 20-year average. There's zero systemic risk here. This is sector pain in a functioning market. Big difference between 'crypto is crashing' and 'the financial system is breaking.' We're in the first one.
Very nice master!! Thanks!
Another great read, thanks for the content and insights
Hi Arthur , isn’t gold at 10k + feel too expensive even for retail (jewellery), manufacturing so it brings some unrest + gold mining companies margins too rich to allow countries slap them and new companies arise for competition?
Great read!
“I thought Trump was for the working white man? Nah, Jimbo, US President Clinton sold your job to China, then Trump got the factories to come back, but the floor is now populated by AI-enabled robot arms owned by Elon. Sorry, you got cucked again, but ICE is hiring!”
💀🍳
Thank you
Competition for a plush lifestyle runs hot. The choice remains where tolerance rests. Shred first ☁️ throw dice after 👑
Fantastic. Thank you.
Sorry guys, ISM is down because I just bought. Won't happen again
Always love Arthur Hayes’ article.
2025 looked “weird” only if you treat BTC, gold, and tech as the same trade. Your split makes it click: BTC is the cleanest proxy for dollar liquidity, gold is ripping because sovereigns are hoovering it up to reduce sanction/expropriation risk, and Nasdaq can stay bid if AI spend gets effectively nationalized / policy-supported even while liquidity slows.
This is basically the lane I write in at MacroDecoded:
Tracking the plumbing (what the Fed is doing + liquidity conditions) and translating that into risk regime implications — i.e., “is liquidity actually easing, or are we just telling ourselves a story?”
Quick question for substack finance and crpyto community
What’s your single best “liquidity is turning” tell for BTC. Fed balance sheet direction, front-end funding stress easing, or something else?
If dems take back house in October, I assume late Sept will bring about a risk-off sell down?
nothing stops this train, no?
multi-year period; i'm balls deep in that! But Sept-Oct (IMO) likely a take-profit moment before further re-girthing
This is the right lens. model selection criteria tends to get hand-waved in architecture discussions but it's often the binding constraint.
More on this: https://credentials.substack.com/p/the-yen-carry-trade-is-back-and-bigger
Everyone's talking about the crash. Nobody's talking about credit spreads at 2.81% — well below the 20-year average. There's zero systemic risk here. This is sector pain in a functioning market. Big difference between 'crypto is crashing' and 'the financial system is breaking.' We're in the first one.
It is a good idea