(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) Last week, I caught up with my favourite OG volatility fund manager named David Dredge and a few of his colleagues for a coffee. The conversation started off with a discussion regarding how Japan's financial markets are going gangbusters. The plebes and the corporates there are flush with cash and the spike in inflation is dragging them out of low-to-no yield bank deposits and into the stock and property market.
hong kong and the blackrock etf with coinbase are the bellwethers of the next bull market
The quality of education via world view that you provide is legendary. My IQ goes up every single time I read this kind of work!
One day, I shall make a toast in celebration of our incredible resilience & emotional intelligence throughout the most challenging of times
That toast shall be made with gratitude to you in mind & in spirit.
& Thank you as always
a smart little birdie said "Blackrock and Coinbase do a deal with government push. With control of the core of the industry costing less than $500b the direction here going forward looks obvious. Blackrock has $9 trillion aum. Another $500b from their clients is a dunk assuming they have government assent." Dems it!
But how is this good for bitcoin long term? If blackrock, etc stores most of US bitcoin and regulated entities do the same in Hong Kong with chinese capital (The biggest "markets" on earth), the narrative of "money out of the system" is not that strong anymore. BTC price is driven by the speculation that it gives the investor control of their money. If the biggest institutions holds the majority of BTC any government can seize the assets and BTC is no longer an asset that gives you "freedom"
QUOTE: “𝘏𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳, 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘶𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘤𝘳𝘺𝘱𝘵𝘰, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 … 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 … 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 $100,000 𝘵𝘰 $200,000 𝘱𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳, 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘺 25% 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 … 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘵𝘩𝘺 … 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘪𝘯’𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘤𝘬𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 … 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘛𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘢 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘬 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 … 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘨𝘰 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴 … 𝘛𝘰 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘉𝘖𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘵 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 “𝘨𝘰𝘰𝘥” 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘺 … 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 – 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 – 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘪𝘳𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 … 𝘐𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘉𝘖𝘊 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘩𝘰𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘞𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘢𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴 “𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘦𝘥” 𝘣𝘺 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵 … 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘺𝘱𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘪𝘱𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘏𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘒𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦-𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵.”
You are extremely pessimistic (cautious?) about the value of the U.S. consumer, as if crypto can never have a use case other than as an asset or FOMO. If the U.S. consumer is as weak as you suggest then the global economy might collapse. The U.S. government still needs to prop up the U.S. consumer until they are ready to stave off violent revolution. Ostensibly C19 was the trial balloon to see what they can get away with and how much cooperation can be expected with totalitarianism. They recently floated a trial balloon about returning to masks and boosters. And they were resoundingly told, “hell no.”
1. Mass affluent cohort is 75m people.
2. Netflix 75m U.S. subscribers, average household income $50k, $20/mo subscription.
3. $360 × 75m = $27b
4. $7500 EV tax rebates (+ up to $7500 more in Commiefornia) until 2032. Up to $4000 for a used EV.
5. Govt wants convenient access to crypto through ETFs, not private keys.
6. The 75m should be crypto users driving investment fervor, not necessarily investors.
Layer 1 focused on AI would be $tao. It’s quite the project.
Love your articles!
Best writer! Thanks!
It was wonderful , thank you
I like you... Pepsi Max...
Great article. Question: why wouldn't fleeing Chinese capital just flow to foreign real estate as it always has? Would you say it still will, but some percentage goes to crypto for diversification? In that case, would you argue that percentage will be higher, at least because of worries that buyers might have their US real estate sized, taxed, or otherwise impaired?
If you want read in Russian, you can visit translated esse here: https://teletype.in/@rekted_capital/fungible-arthur-hayes-16-jun-2023-rus
Thanks king Arthur!