iOS Warfare

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At the behest of the most peaceful president in US history, Donald J. Trump, the US Department of War and OpenAI launched their offensive agentic AI weapon, a deadly new Apple iOS. This operating system, once uploaded to a nation’s cyber infrastructure, attempts regime change. Regime change most often comes complete with indiscriminate bombing of military and civilian infrastructure, causing widespread casualties, at the minimum cost of hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars. The destruction of the partisan resistance allows the new US-controlled political elite to siphon money from ‌American taxpayers and their indigenous population, and deposit said funds into their JP Morgan private wealth accounts. Popular discontent builds against the American Middle Eastern Vichy-esque regime, culminating in the violent installation of a reactionary, usually repressive and blood thirsty, home-grown political structure. The sales cycle is complete, and OpenAI can flog off the next version. Aren’t you pumped for the OpenAI IPO priced at a forward P/E of infinity?

Pax Americana’s righteous crusade against Middle Eastern oil producers and or way-stations for geostrategic gas or oil pipelines has been going strong since my consciousness awoke and began imprinting experiences onto the quantum continuum in the human year of 1985. Feast your eyes on this beauty of a chart prepared using Perplexity’s new Computer model:

At a high level, it depicts the human cost of war, represented by the percentage of the US federal budget spent on Veterans Affairs (VA), the aggregate nominal level of federal spending, and the effective Fed Funds Rate. It is annotated with an illustrative, not exhaustive, list of US missile strikes or full-scale wars against Middle Eastern countries. As you can see, the cost to care for military personnel increased twice as fast as the federal budget, and most importantly to this essay, the Fed reduced the price of money right after a major Pax Americana initiated a Middle Eastern war of choice. As much as every US President that ruled during my lifetime tries to hoodwink the American public that their Middle East video game wars played out on evening television do not create misery for the only humans that matter in the Universe, American soldiers, the data clearly shows this obsession with military adventures in the Middle East destroys American lives in a costly manner.

My ovarian lottery ticket consigned me to emerge in the fictitious, squiggly line-defined landmass we humans call America. And over my forty years of existence, every single Team Red Republican and Team Blue Democrat President launched a missile strike or full-fledged war against some deserving shithole country in the Middle East. It’s as if once you become President high-ranking bureaucrats lead you into a super-duper secret room, put your testicles in a vice, and make you swear that at least one Middle Eastern country will feel the searing heat of democracy during your reign … or else.

Whether you believe the conspiracy theory du jour explaining why America is bombing such-and-such country, in my lifetime at least, the graphic shows that every US president since 1985 has engaged militarily with one or more Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, as President Trump coos about the apparent assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and endorsement of a popular revolution against the theocratic state, we investors must ponder what happens to our portfolios as Trump embarks on the rite of passage for every US president before him.

Given I’m just a simple-minded crypto bro infected with toxic masculinity, I adopt a very simple heuristic to determine whether Bitcoin number go up or down.

The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism.

To validate my hypothesis, let’s examine the history of Fed actions post a major Middle Eastern war from 1985 to the present.

1990 Gulf War - The Father (President George H.W. Bush)

The Fed held interest rates steady in the first meeting after the onset of the war, but intimated that if the war dragged on, monetary easing would likely be necessary.

I will quote directly from FOMC statements, which Perplexity fetched for me.

August 21, 1990:

“The heightened uncertainties and the prospectively less satisfactory performance of the economy stemming from events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy.”

“In the opinion of several members, events appeared likely to unfold in a direction that would require an easing of policy at some point to counter weakening tendencies in the economy that had been in train before the oil price increase.”

The Fed subsequently cut rates at its November and December 1990 meetings, citing the war euphemistically as a confounding factor affecting its decision. The war ended in March ‌1991.

“The substantial decline that had occurred in business and consumer confidence likely reflected not only the course of events in the Middle East, but perhaps also uncertainty about developments in that area and their implications for oil prices.”

The Fed eased in the face of inflation caused by a spike in the oil price.

2001 Global War on Terror (GWOT) - The Son (President George W. Bush)

The GWOT began directly after the World Trade Center towers in New York fell. Almost immediately Iraq and Afghanistan were put to the question by the cruise missile inquisition. The Fed wasted no time in accelerating rate cuts to help confidence in the economy recover.

At the emergency meeting post the attacks, the maestro himself, Chairperson Alan Greenspan, proclaimed:

“It’s clear that the events of last week, at a minimum, have created a heightened degree of fear and uncertainty that is placing considerable downward pressure on asset prices, increasing the probability of an asset price deflation, with its obvious impact on the economy. Therefore, I propose a 50-basis point cut in the federal funds rate target.”

Essentially, if flagging confidence in Pax Americana’s economy causes asset prices to fall, the Fed must spring into action. The cure, as always, is cheaper and more plentiful money.

Another interesting statement by the Fed points to the fact that when called upon, the Fed will do its duty to help the government finance the war machine.

November 6, 2001 — FOMC Statement

“Although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable.”

2009 The Surge - The Holy Ghost (President Barack Obama)

The unfortunate plebes in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan might have assumed a Nobel Peace prize winning President would not rain hell fire down upon their countries. But they would be sorely mistaken; false hope is indeed a killer. While Obama didn’t start any major Middle Eastern wars, he did up size troop deployment (the surge) in the Afghanistan War, which he believed was a just war.

Given that the Fed reduced interest rates to zero and began money printing via QE in late 2008, there wasn’t anything for them to do in response to Obama’s surge of troop deployments to the Middle Eastern theatre. Money was free and supplied in infinite quantities. The US war machine and its contractors feasted.

Iran 2026 - The Messiah (President Donald Trump)

In a perverse twist of fate, Trump practically rose from the dead after an assassination attempt during the 2024 presidential campaign. As Kanye says, Jesus walks. I can talk about Kanye now cause he bent the knee, right …?

Trump’s presidency and the November re-election odds of his Team Red Republican legislators will depend ‌on success or failure defined by rising or falling financial asset markets and or falling or rising oil prices, respectively. Given that since the Shah fell in 1979 Iranian regime change has been the wet dream of elite Pax Americana politicians from both Team Red and Blue, the Fed possesses political cover to ease monetary policy significantly. To shirk their duty as the enabler of cheaper and more plentiful money to finance the reconstruction of Iran into an American vassal state is unpatriotic.

Trading Tactics

Sitting here today, we do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking, nor how much geopolitical and financial markets pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs. The prudent action is to wait and see. The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins like $HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government’s goals in Iran.

Stay safe, fam.

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