Many readers forget the principle of KISS when reacting to the policy firehose of US President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump’s media strategic goal is that every day you wake up and say to your friend, partner, or inner self, “Oh My Fuckin...
Brilliant, as always Arthur, thank you for your erudite yet original and contemporary take on these crazy economic times we are living through. What's your take on Michael Howell's recent piece on "s Trump 2.0 Planning A ‘New’ Gold Exchange Standard?". This is seems to be a more nuanced version of an outright and one time USD devaluation vs Gold, and essentially a pegged system which allows for movement in fiat but caps money supply growth. I'm curious on your take, seems like something they might do and if so where does it leave other monetary debasement hedges such as BTC?
Well articulated and love the back of envelope modelling! Also other external policies that could help with rates: NATO and others asked to pay for defense via treasuries buying and rise of stablecoins which reflexively supports more treasuries buying as collateral.
Thank you Arthur. Seems this time around Tariffs will get passed to the consumer and inflation expectations likely higher. Can FED cut in that environment? Also, if equities dump 20-30% off highs, I believe we will see BTC back down to 20k or lower getting our -80% from 110k highs. Dont see it staying above 70k with a 20-30% equity move down.
Thank you for the article. Was thinking Trump/Bessent have more tools in disposal. A conclusion in the Russian/Ukraine war would definitely have impact in energy prices as well as others+Trump's EO in boosting dom. energy supply would entail lower consumer prices -> CPI↓. Additionally, Michael S. Barr resigning and Powell telling congress that he supports reducing SLR regulations (last month) which, like you stated, will be the printer brrrrr for treasury market liquidity.
These two elements I guess would lower treasury yields and CPI thus, lower usd while also giving the Fed a reason to lower interest.
No leverage is the important part now I think. Also, to be able to stay in the position while waiting for the bounce, meaning you have to have other means of income in the mean time.
Brilliant, as always Arthur, thank you for your erudite yet original and contemporary take on these crazy economic times we are living through. What's your take on Michael Howell's recent piece on "s Trump 2.0 Planning A ‘New’ Gold Exchange Standard?". This is seems to be a more nuanced version of an outright and one time USD devaluation vs Gold, and essentially a pegged system which allows for movement in fiat but caps money supply growth. I'm curious on your take, seems like something they might do and if so where does it leave other monetary debasement hedges such as BTC?
Well articulated and love the back of envelope modelling! Also other external policies that could help with rates: NATO and others asked to pay for defense via treasuries buying and rise of stablecoins which reflexively supports more treasuries buying as collateral.
lovely note - thanks arthur
Thank you Arthur. Seems this time around Tariffs will get passed to the consumer and inflation expectations likely higher. Can FED cut in that environment? Also, if equities dump 20-30% off highs, I believe we will see BTC back down to 20k or lower getting our -80% from 110k highs. Dont see it staying above 70k with a 20-30% equity move down.
Thank you for the article. Was thinking Trump/Bessent have more tools in disposal. A conclusion in the Russian/Ukraine war would definitely have impact in energy prices as well as others+Trump's EO in boosting dom. energy supply would entail lower consumer prices -> CPI↓. Additionally, Michael S. Barr resigning and Powell telling congress that he supports reducing SLR regulations (last month) which, like you stated, will be the printer brrrrr for treasury market liquidity.
These two elements I guess would lower treasury yields and CPI thus, lower usd while also giving the Fed a reason to lower interest.
No leverage is the important part now I think. Also, to be able to stay in the position while waiting for the bounce, meaning you have to have other means of income in the mean time.
Well thought through as always Arthur.
Bad news