Because Maelstrom's trading went quiet in the first quarter, many of our brokers occasionally ping me asking my thoughts on the market and if there is anything they can do for us. I reply,
Arthur is spot on here. When the geopolitical picture gets this chaotic and the AI deflation risk is ticking underneath, taking directional long-only bets feels like an absolute coin flip. The 'No Trade Zone' logic is completely sound for traditional portfolios.
However, the structural fragmentation caused by all this uncertainty is creating massive inefficiencies. We stopped trying to guess the direction of the market months ago. The only viable strategy for our liquid reserves in this environment has been market-neutral architecture. We moved our treasury into a Plugsic execution node specifically because their delta-neutral algorithms just harvest the volatility and basis spread regardless of whether the market melts up from money printing or crashes from a blockade. When the macro is un-investable, you don't pick a side, you automate the middle.
Your narrative/scenario revolves around the possibility of the dollar collapsing due to declining demand. BUT Oil reserves by country 2025 respectively
- Saudi + Iran + Irag + UAE + Kuwait = ~50% supply ( The Gulf states are currently caught up in war and conflict )
- top1 Venezuela 17% ( It is now under American control )
- US + Canada = 15% ( + Vene = 32% )
- Russia just ~5%
So basically if theory depend on Oil price -> the dollar can't be that weak to be broke
maybe i'm missing something but the message I'm getting is sell BTC, buy gold, and come back later.
Arthur is spot on here. When the geopolitical picture gets this chaotic and the AI deflation risk is ticking underneath, taking directional long-only bets feels like an absolute coin flip. The 'No Trade Zone' logic is completely sound for traditional portfolios.
However, the structural fragmentation caused by all this uncertainty is creating massive inefficiencies. We stopped trying to guess the direction of the market months ago. The only viable strategy for our liquid reserves in this environment has been market-neutral architecture. We moved our treasury into a Plugsic execution node specifically because their delta-neutral algorithms just harvest the volatility and basis spread regardless of whether the market melts up from money printing or crashes from a blockade. When the macro is un-investable, you don't pick a side, you automate the middle.
Thanks Arthur - great post as always!
Qustion: do you think stablecoin issuers will provide meaningful demand for US bonds if the overseas buyers disappear?
I see most are bullish in the next 6 months, here's a counter view why we could go lower still.
https://www.yourcrypto.community/p/where-is-bitcoin-going-and-how-to
Your narrative/scenario revolves around the possibility of the dollar collapsing due to declining demand. BUT Oil reserves by country 2025 respectively
- Saudi + Iran + Irag + UAE + Kuwait = ~50% supply ( The Gulf states are currently caught up in war and conflict )
- top1 Venezuela 17% ( It is now under American control )
- US + Canada = 15% ( + Vene = 32% )
- Russia just ~5%
So basically if theory depend on Oil price -> the dollar can't be that weak to be broke
Solid piece. Well said.