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Hey Arthur Hayes, did you consider the impact on the strengthening USD for global liquidity conditions that have been coming down since october? Many people including daddy Zulauf have been predicting risk asset correction in Q1 rather than Q2 (S&P500). And given the high correlation between S&P500 and Bitcoin, his view looks more to Q1.
Have you thought why daddy is wrong?
Side note: I died when I read "ass-kicking in a gender-neutral bathroom".
The fundamental flaw in Arthur & Co.'s 'liquidity cult' lies in their failure to recognize that the post-COVID world has fundamentally shifted. The Federal Reserve now operates under constraints it didn't face before, including persistent inflation and extreme fiscal profligacy
The pace of QT from FED should be $25bn per month these days (since June 2024), therefore the liquidity injection for Q1 2025 should be increased by $35bn x 3, going as high as $717bn according to your projections
Nice. Mostly agree. Stay away in May but really April. Come back in late Sept. What about the “6 trillion wall” of money on the “sidelines” that every mainstream media outlet loves to tout. Won’t people be bored of money market and treasury doldrums? Equities and crypto are calling for them. And then what about everyone wanting to invest in the US bc that’s where all action lay?
Hey Arthur Hayes, did you consider the impact on the strengthening USD for global liquidity conditions that have been coming down since october? Many people including daddy Zulauf have been predicting risk asset correction in Q1 rather than Q2 (S&P500). And given the high correlation between S&P500 and Bitcoin, his view looks more to Q1.
Have you thought why daddy is wrong?
Side note: I died when I read "ass-kicking in a gender-neutral bathroom".
Turns out I'm more correct, here's my analysis:
https://hackmd.io/@joshuacheong/S1u7gTRrke
WTF bot, you would benefit from reading the research than phish people
The fundamental flaw in Arthur & Co.'s 'liquidity cult' lies in their failure to recognize that the post-COVID world has fundamentally shifted. The Federal Reserve now operates under constraints it didn't face before, including persistent inflation and extreme fiscal profligacy
Happy New Year Ser Hayes!!!! Thanks for yet another interesting essay 👏
Dopest economics blog in all of substackia!
solid and honest. ride the 909 open hi-hat!!! lol
Unfortunately Pozsar's essay "Cheating on Cinderella" is behind a paywall
The pace of QT from FED should be $25bn per month these days (since June 2024), therefore the liquidity injection for Q1 2025 should be increased by $35bn x 3, going as high as $717bn according to your projections
The ticker is WORM
amazing
Nice. Mostly agree. Stay away in May but really April. Come back in late Sept. What about the “6 trillion wall” of money on the “sidelines” that every mainstream media outlet loves to tout. Won’t people be bored of money market and treasury doldrums? Equities and crypto are calling for them. And then what about everyone wanting to invest in the US bc that’s where all action lay?