8 Comments

Hey Arthur Hayes, did you consider the impact on the strengthening USD for global liquidity conditions that have been coming down since october? Many people including daddy Zulauf have been predicting risk asset correction in Q1 rather than Q2 (S&P500). And given the high correlation between S&P500 and Bitcoin, his view looks more to Q1.

Have you thought why daddy is wrong?

Side note: I died when I read "ass-kicking in a gender-neutral bathroom".

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Happy New Year Ser Hayes!!!! Thanks for yet another interesting essay 👏

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Unfortunately Pozsar's essay "Cheating on Cinderella" is behind a paywall

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The pace of QT from FED should be $25bn per month these days (since June 2024), therefore the liquidity injection for Q1 2025 should be increased by $35bn x 3, going as high as $717bn according to your projections

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The ticker is WORM

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Nice. Mostly agree. Stay away in May but really April. Come back in late Sept. What about the “6 trillion wall” of money on the “sidelines” that every mainstream media outlet loves to tout. Won’t people be bored of money market and treasury doldrums? Equities and crypto are calling for them. And then what about everyone wanting to invest in the US bc that’s where all action lay?

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amazing

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Dopest economics blog in all of substackia!

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