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solothurner's avatar

Always some of the best info/analysis/direction by anyone out there. Thanks, Brother, your views are always appreciated!

Pat B.'s avatar

Take this article with a grain of salt.

avaresearch.com's avatar

Yet another crypto charlatan. These people are truly degenerate scum. Most are plain criminals. Most get pardoned by the criminal in the White House.

Cory Bower's avatar

Thank you for another banger. Did you see this article from Jordi?

https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/the-age-of-abundant-intelligence

Maki's avatar

Equating "Compute" with "Depreciating Real Estate":

It is argued that Hyperscalers are building real estate (Data Centers) housing chips that rapidly depreciate and become obsolete, similar to building subprime housing. However, this ignores a key factor: traditional real estate merely provides static shelter, whereas "Compute" continuously generates intangible assets—more powerful AI models capable of solving increasingly complex problems. While the chip degradation cycle is real, the marginal returns from deploying these models over a chip's 3-to-5-year lifecycle can far outweigh its depreciation rate—a dynamic completely absent in the 2008 housing bubble.

Acceleration (Second Derivative) Does Not Apply One-Way to Tech:

A deceleration in AI CAPEX (should it occur around 2027) may not stem from running out of borrowed capital, but rather because algorithmic efficiency has reached an optimal threshold. As Small Language Models (SLMs) become exceptionally capable and can run on edge devices (Edge Computing), tech giants will voluntarily scale back data center CAPEX. This represents a positive deceleration driven by technological evolution, rather than an inevitable, catastrophic credit crash.

The Thesis of "Government Printing Money to Buy AI Equity Directly" (Equity QE):

This is an extraordinarily bold conspiracy theory. Although governments have bailed out banks in the past, directly establishing Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to scoop up private AI equity would face enormous constitutional hurdles and massive political backlash. However, looking at the CHIPS Act, covert intervention ("Window Guidance") through major banks to supply cheap credit to the AI sector is entirely feasible and plausible.

Brian Prince's avatar

Thank u ser - great read 🫡

Malcolm's avatar

Nice one Arthur. Always a fun and insightful read....

J Ridder's avatar

Ohhhh dats a good 1!

Milman's avatar

Most important phrase = “the application layer” LfG