(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) I might sound sarcastic and flippant when discussing war, and the death of precious humans. The reality is, I believe that the men and women who serve in armed forces around the world are to be applauded for being willing to risk their lives for the imaginary concept of the nation state. I am not willing to do so, and as such I believe I have no right to vote in favour of any nation going to war. Who I vehemently despise are the politicians who sit on their thrones with no skin in the game and send beautiful humans to war. Most of these politicians have no direct family members serving in the armed forces nor have they served themselves. Yet, they gladly will send others to their death for personal political and financial gain. War is not a video game, war is wasteful, war is nasty, war is deadly. So, I say to all these spinless charlatans, FUCK YOU!
Contrarian view here from someone that did not enjoy this piece (I hope you are not going to remove my comment just because I disagree with you - I still enjoyed it and I am subscribing to your newsletter).
First of all, a good half of this article is about showing off that you know how bonds work because you worked in TradFi. Kudos to you for your knowledge, but this is completely pointless to your final point that "Bitcoin discounting a future, very inflationary global world war situation".
More importantly, this last statement is ludicrous. Bitcoin today is still in the hands of relatively few people, if compared to TradFi. The entire market cap of BTC is less than Apple's. Institutional money is not in BTC yet, and I am sure I do not need to tell you that since you have an idea of the magnitude of how large the bond market is, for example. Thinking that Bitcoin is behaving like a safe haven asset based on a week of data is wishful thinking at best.
I would also be wary of a world where we lose access to monetary policies. As much as the FED has been politicized in the last 10-15 years, the world before the FED and before monetary policy was - economically speaking - not a world you want to live in. It was a world of financial chaos, constant bank runs and wrecking economic cycles. An hyper-bitcoinized world where the prime reserve asset and currency is a deflationary one does not look pretty for 99% of the population. This is how our world looked like for most of the history of humankind, with gold as the ultimate resrve currency - and in that world, wars and inequality where at levels that are WAY higher than today.
So, if monetary policy and the FED suck (they do), they are still the best solution we have today to a big problem ("controlling" economic cycles) - a problem that Bitcoin does not solve. Which incidentally is also my view on your dire take on "Pax Americana" and your view of war: I am not a US citizen, nor I live in the US. I live in Europe, where the public opinion about the US is definitely more negative than positive (despite than what message your media might want to pass, the average citizen of the EU is definitely pro-palestine).
That said, I personally will always prefer and support a US-led world than anything else. As much as you can criticize the stance of the US on human rights and the thousands of contradictions in their foreign policy, I take a US-led world anytime vs. a Russia or China led world. There is simply no better alternative today than a US-led world. And if what it takes to sustain that (imperfect) world is a few wars against bullies, then let it be.
But, I am a very pragmatic person by nature so I understand people might disagree with this.
First finding you in a YouTube interview, this is my first read of your posts, Arthur. I am impressed and waaaay out of my depth and domain here. I have a lot to learn, and it is never ending. But your paragraph above was refreshing in its sentiments and assumptions. I am glad to read someone besides myself who sees the Corporate Nation-State as an illusion, a fiction serving those possessed by the values of Mammon and Moloch.
I've been doing a lot of reading about those spineless charlatans lately ... dark triads, cluster b personality types, pathological narcissists and psychopaths. A good read, though not without its weaknesses, is A. Lobaczewski's "Political Ponerology: The Science of Evil, Psychopathy, and the Origins of the Totalitarian State". Much more illuminating than Desmet's focus on the bamboozled with his "Mass Formation Psychosis".
What if full on anti crypto populism is here short term?
Sanctions, social ostracization of anyone crypto affiliated, millions of ex-crypto users -most of whom are naive Gen Z and millenials (94%) to cheer on Feds starting to arrest devs and promoters using the coming economic sentiment to their benefit, more banks to unbank the banked for using crypto like Chase UK just did, barely a day goes by without another indictment/lawsuit/hack now, new FinCen requirements on mixers Friday, UK FCA threatening prison time to unregistered advertising, list goes on and on.
It's unfortunate but crypto bros really thought due to a decade of ZIRP the world ran on shitcoins and DeFi. Turns out when shit hits the fan it still runs on state backed violence.
Did crypto bros really think they could release and market half baked, often flawed, open access financial tech to the masses as replacements for the banking system, inadvertently lead to terrorist financing and billions to be hacked, and nothing would happen in retaliation from users and the Feds? Lol.
Sorry but I believe a level of hell the crypto industry cannot imagine is still to come, and economic crimes to be paid for before any future bull market to happen longer term. We shall see.
Another fantastic exposition. We mustn't forget the unlimited check written to underwrite semi and clean tech manufacturing in the US. If you're going to be crowded out by defense spending then pivot to subsidized political causes to see you through the Fourth Turning.
The big mystery for me is will we get a black swan prior to the next big bull wave in cryptoland. spiking yields usually break something and cause a flight to safety, dump in risk assets. what are some of the invalidation signals to look out for if BTC tops out at resistance here? What if the war takes longer to escalate and Gold/BTC take a tumble along with other risk assets as higher rates finally start setting in and tank the economy?
Arthur, while you have good economic takes, your political takes are horrendous.
Just say you are too pampered to understand in these topics.
Iran is anything but a boogieman -- they have been the principal funder of global terrorism for the last few decades. They finance Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen and more and more. Normal people can't live normal lives because of them. They will soon have nuclear weapon (unless someone acts to stop them which currently doesn't seem likely) and once they do -- they'll make North Korea look as peaceful as Switzerland and the Iranian people will lose any chance at democracy. You obviously never lived *yet* in a region rife with Islamic fundamentalist terrorism trying to convert everything and everyone to Islam by violence/rape/terror (I'm saying *yet* because it's coming to the US and Europe soon in the next decades due to demographics so let's talk again in a decade or two and then tell me the US has nothing to do with it).
I love the way you write. It is the perfect balance of wit, charm, insightfulness, and punch-you-in-the-face. Toss in: George Orwell, Michel Houellebecq, Chuck Palahniuk, Thomas Sowell, some pre-Twitter Nassim Taleb, a block of cocaine, and ‘The Big Short’ DVD into a blender and ... BAM. That’s you.
Contrarian view here from someone that did not enjoy this piece (I hope you are not going to remove my comment just because I disagree with you - I still enjoyed it and I am subscribing to your newsletter).
First of all, a good half of this article is about showing off that you know how bonds work because you worked in TradFi. Kudos to you for your knowledge, but this is completely pointless to your final point that "Bitcoin discounting a future, very inflationary global world war situation".
More importantly, this last statement is ludicrous. Bitcoin today is still in the hands of relatively few people, if compared to TradFi. The entire market cap of BTC is less than Apple's. Institutional money is not in BTC yet, and I am sure I do not need to tell you that since you have an idea of the magnitude of how large the bond market is, for example. Thinking that Bitcoin is behaving like a safe haven asset based on a week of data is wishful thinking at best.
I would also be wary of a world where we lose access to monetary policies. As much as the FED has been politicized in the last 10-15 years, the world before the FED and before monetary policy was - economically speaking - not a world you want to live in. It was a world of financial chaos, constant bank runs and wrecking economic cycles. An hyper-bitcoinized world where the prime reserve asset and currency is a deflationary one does not look pretty for 99% of the population. This is how our world looked like for most of the history of humankind, with gold as the ultimate resrve currency - and in that world, wars and inequality where at levels that are WAY higher than today.
So, if monetary policy and the FED suck (they do), they are still the best solution we have today to a big problem ("controlling" economic cycles) - a problem that Bitcoin does not solve. Which incidentally is also my view on your dire take on "Pax Americana" and your view of war: I am not a US citizen, nor I live in the US. I live in Europe, where the public opinion about the US is definitely more negative than positive (despite than what message your media might want to pass, the average citizen of the EU is definitely pro-palestine).
That said, I personally will always prefer and support a US-led world than anything else. As much as you can criticize the stance of the US on human rights and the thousands of contradictions in their foreign policy, I take a US-led world anytime vs. a Russia or China led world. There is simply no better alternative today than a US-led world. And if what it takes to sustain that (imperfect) world is a few wars against bullies, then let it be.
But, I am a very pragmatic person by nature so I understand people might disagree with this.
First finding you in a YouTube interview, this is my first read of your posts, Arthur. I am impressed and waaaay out of my depth and domain here. I have a lot to learn, and it is never ending. But your paragraph above was refreshing in its sentiments and assumptions. I am glad to read someone besides myself who sees the Corporate Nation-State as an illusion, a fiction serving those possessed by the values of Mammon and Moloch.
I've been doing a lot of reading about those spineless charlatans lately ... dark triads, cluster b personality types, pathological narcissists and psychopaths. A good read, though not without its weaknesses, is A. Lobaczewski's "Political Ponerology: The Science of Evil, Psychopathy, and the Origins of the Totalitarian State". Much more illuminating than Desmet's focus on the bamboozled with his "Mass Formation Psychosis".
Cheers from Kawasaki
Lol really? Weirdest hopium ever.
What if full on anti crypto populism is here short term?
Sanctions, social ostracization of anyone crypto affiliated, millions of ex-crypto users -most of whom are naive Gen Z and millenials (94%) to cheer on Feds starting to arrest devs and promoters using the coming economic sentiment to their benefit, more banks to unbank the banked for using crypto like Chase UK just did, barely a day goes by without another indictment/lawsuit/hack now, new FinCen requirements on mixers Friday, UK FCA threatening prison time to unregistered advertising, list goes on and on.
It's unfortunate but crypto bros really thought due to a decade of ZIRP the world ran on shitcoins and DeFi. Turns out when shit hits the fan it still runs on state backed violence.
Did crypto bros really think they could release and market half baked, often flawed, open access financial tech to the masses as replacements for the banking system, inadvertently lead to terrorist financing and billions to be hacked, and nothing would happen in retaliation from users and the Feds? Lol.
Sorry but I believe a level of hell the crypto industry cannot imagine is still to come, and economic crimes to be paid for before any future bull market to happen longer term. We shall see.
Another fantastic exposition. We mustn't forget the unlimited check written to underwrite semi and clean tech manufacturing in the US. If you're going to be crowded out by defense spending then pivot to subsidized political causes to see you through the Fourth Turning.
Printer goes…
The big mystery for me is will we get a black swan prior to the next big bull wave in cryptoland. spiking yields usually break something and cause a flight to safety, dump in risk assets. what are some of the invalidation signals to look out for if BTC tops out at resistance here? What if the war takes longer to escalate and Gold/BTC take a tumble along with other risk assets as higher rates finally start setting in and tank the economy?
Bitcoin isn’t reacting to the ETF news.....it’s reacting as a Flight to Safety! Arthur and Larry on the same page!
great article!
Arthur, while you have good economic takes, your political takes are horrendous.
Just say you are too pampered to understand in these topics.
Iran is anything but a boogieman -- they have been the principal funder of global terrorism for the last few decades. They finance Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen and more and more. Normal people can't live normal lives because of them. They will soon have nuclear weapon (unless someone acts to stop them which currently doesn't seem likely) and once they do -- they'll make North Korea look as peaceful as Switzerland and the Iranian people will lose any chance at democracy. You obviously never lived *yet* in a region rife with Islamic fundamentalist terrorism trying to convert everything and everyone to Islam by violence/rape/terror (I'm saying *yet* because it's coming to the US and Europe soon in the next decades due to demographics so let's talk again in a decade or two and then tell me the US has nothing to do with it).
Very informative, thank you.
Arthur you’re a madlad!
I love the way you write. It is the perfect balance of wit, charm, insightfulness, and punch-you-in-the-face. Toss in: George Orwell, Michel Houellebecq, Chuck Palahniuk, Thomas Sowell, some pre-Twitter Nassim Taleb, a block of cocaine, and ‘The Big Short’ DVD into a blender and ... BAM. That’s you.
Always informative, always fun. 🫶
Excellent article. Greetings from Venezuela.