"Stop - thirty-meter spacing on this face," were the instructions from my guide as we abruptly slowed our pace skiing up a dormant volcano a few weeks back. It had been a very chill hike up the slope until that point...
There is one thing that would be a nonsense in that case: why Trump’s World Liberty Financial is buying crypto (ETH) now, while they could buy it in a month much cheaper?
In my view 70000 to 75000 is way too low for Bitcoin to fall to. For it to happen it should be quite a financial disaster and I don't envisage such. Otherwise you are spot on on the risks and potential outcomes - there surely will be some pain before the gain but I would be amazed if Bitcoin falls below 90000.
@cryptohayes, 10Y yield is falling. Is there a level the 10Y can fall to which would invalidate your thesis? Polymarket probability of 10Y yield above 5% by 6/30 sitting at 35%. Thanks!
Great summary. Question: If J Pow is not as politically motivated as you believe, or perhaps he ends up being more prone to Trump’s overbearing influence than it might seem, what is your assessment that he might preemptively take action before a real crisis can unfold? And if that were to happen do you believe that would negate the downside case you presented?
I have to admit you were right, Arthur and I was wrong. I didn't think that we would see Bitcoin under 80000 ever again. Congrats on the correct call! I hope you are right with your prediction for 250000 per Bitcoin later this year as well! 😀 Regards
There is one thing that would be a nonsense in that case: why Trump’s World Liberty Financial is buying crypto (ETH) now, while they could buy it in a month much cheaper?
Arthur is spot on as usual. CME gap is 🧲
In my view 70000 to 75000 is way too low for Bitcoin to fall to. For it to happen it should be quite a financial disaster and I don't envisage such. Otherwise you are spot on on the risks and potential outcomes - there surely will be some pain before the gain but I would be amazed if Bitcoin falls below 90000.
RIP
So if my forecast is correct the equation should be adjusted as follows: (60%*-15%) + (40%*10%) = -5% Expected Value
Looks like this wasn't true :(
@cryptohayes, 10Y yield is falling. Is there a level the 10Y can fall to which would invalidate your thesis? Polymarket probability of 10Y yield above 5% by 6/30 sitting at 35%. Thanks!
https://polymarket.com/event/us-10y-treasury-yield-above-5-by-june-30?tid=1738771649168
Brilliant. Thanks for the insight!
Reading your essay in the morning : It's always excellent !
Great summary. Question: If J Pow is not as politically motivated as you believe, or perhaps he ends up being more prone to Trump’s overbearing influence than it might seem, what is your assessment that he might preemptively take action before a real crisis can unfold? And if that were to happen do you believe that would negate the downside case you presented?
One more consumer: USDC via the Blackrock operated Circle Reserve Fund, which is predominately ... <drum roll please> billions in Treasury Bills.
https://www.blackrock.com/cash/en-us/products/329365/circle-reserve-fund
Could the tariffs be that instrument to bring markets down? In that case, since it was known to trump - why buy BTC before the announcement?
Anyone have a resource to read up on USDe staking? I see rates like that and am scarred by LUNA / UST
Excelente resumen .Gracias 🙏
Powell is a dove at heart and this fire in fiat may play out longer than you think.
I have to admit you were right, Arthur and I was wrong. I didn't think that we would see Bitcoin under 80000 ever again. Congrats on the correct call! I hope you are right with your prediction for 250000 per Bitcoin later this year as well! 😀 Regards
Lol