"Stop - thirty-meter spacing on this face," were the instructions from my guide as we abruptly slowed our pace skiing up a dormant volcano a few weeks back. It had been a very chill hike up the slope until that point...
There is one thing that would be a nonsense in that case: why Trump’s World Liberty Financial is buying crypto (ETH) now, while they could buy it in a month much cheaper?
In my view 70000 to 75000 is way too low for Bitcoin to fall to. For it to happen it should be quite a financial disaster and I don't envisage such. Otherwise you are spot on on the risks and potential outcomes - there surely will be some pain before the gain but I would be amazed if Bitcoin falls below 90000.
Great summary. Question: If J Pow is not as politically motivated as you believe, or perhaps he ends up being more prone to Trump’s overbearing influence than it might seem, what is your assessment that he might preemptively take action before a real crisis can unfold? And if that were to happen do you believe that would negate the downside case you presented?
There is one thing that would be a nonsense in that case: why Trump’s World Liberty Financial is buying crypto (ETH) now, while they could buy it in a month much cheaper?
In my view 70000 to 75000 is way too low for Bitcoin to fall to. For it to happen it should be quite a financial disaster and I don't envisage such. Otherwise you are spot on on the risks and potential outcomes - there surely will be some pain before the gain but I would be amazed if Bitcoin falls below 90000.
So if my forecast is correct the equation should be adjusted as follows: (60%*-15%) + (40%*10%) = -5% Expected Value
Great summary. Question: If J Pow is not as politically motivated as you believe, or perhaps he ends up being more prone to Trump’s overbearing influence than it might seem, what is your assessment that he might preemptively take action before a real crisis can unfold? And if that were to happen do you believe that would negate the downside case you presented?
Brilliant. Thanks for the insight!
Excelente resumen .Gracias 🙏
Arthur is spot on as usual. CME gap is 🧲
Reading your essay in the morning : It's always excellent !
Powell is a dove at heart and this fire in fiat may play out longer than you think.