When the fire alarm rings in your apartment or office building, you usually dismiss it. But sometimes death comes swiftly to those who ignore obvious warnings...
I really enjoy your posts, but in this one it became clear that you don't deeply understand current AI systems and how unreliable they still are. Where exactly is AI-related job displacement accelerating right now? The replacement will probably happen — but at a much smaller scale than you’re estimating.
So the evidence that AI is taking everyone’s job is delinquencies? Isn’t the spike because of an expiration in the Covid moratorium? Attributing this to massive job losses that aren’t reported in the jobs data is a big leap
The same could be said for literally everything Arthur posts. Dude consistently underestimates how long major changes like these (i.e., the type he's always predicting) take to play out.
The $557 billion write-down math is compelling, but the timeline assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Manufacturing job losses took decades post-WTO because physical supply chains are slow. Knowledge work disruption could be faster, sure, but corporate AI adoption is still in pilot-program purgatory at most companies. The real trigger isn't the job losses themselves, it's
the credit cycle that follows. Delinquent loan rates already hit their highest since 2017 and we haven't even started the white-collar layoff wave yet. If your model is right about the magnitude, the Fed doesn't wait for regional bank failures they front-run it. The question is whether BTC prices the printing before or after the credit event.
This was interesting though too long as I am not an American. I am however emboldened to offer my counter fictitious take on how AI will destroy the market and how one man — Elon Musk, will save the day.
Rockets.
Rockets are the perfect way to slap AI on the wrist.
It works like this.
Thanks to all the cheap credit and the massive success of Teslas (turns out people love being entertained inside moving boxes without them touching the wheel), Elon Musk will soon be launching 1 million AI serves into space.
That's 1 million rocket launches into Space.
That's enough trial and error to build a primitive spaceship.
See, there is no way to repair those AI servers when they are in space. So
Elon knows its perhaps a shitty plan in the long run.
Hopefully, however, those AIs enjoy cost advantages from zero electricity bills so that Elon's true baby — Rocketry — will inch closer towards what he dreamed off when he built Blaster as a child.
Elon biggest play is with the rocket business.
Always has been.
It's like McDonalds. They sell decent hamburgers, true. But they love land a lot more.
If people start losing jobs because of AI, Elon might pack some platinum, palladium and gold on a rocket and take them to Mars. Starve the damned AI of resources. Rocket up prices.
This has gotten ridiculous and most people's imaginations have stopped already. So I'll stop here too.
But if the worst comes to the worst, the world doesn't collapse. Rockets do the trick.
Bankers will turn towards Rockets. Coz that is the truest leverage.
The Space race will return and instead of "maybe we actually put a human on the moon" we shall definitely put gold in space.
If too many bots or AI servers are made we could just ship these to Mars themselves. Keep them their until the market needs them.
Also, Rockets are the perfect reality check to get ya'll out of your dopamine fuelled cyber fugue. Ya'll need to touch grass, jet fuel, and an aluminum casting mallet.
Hi Arthur. Well, that all makes sense when you say it like that. I wouldn’t worry too much about the haters in the comments, lotta people got a lotta cognitive dissonance about being thrown on the scrap heap (at least they will be on the top of the heap so they can still look down upon their blue collar brothers). The flack is always heaviest when you are over the target!
if everyone is fired and there is not a lot of opportunity and tons of unemployment. Won't this technically mean that the government will be incentivized to send these unemployed males (and females since we're all equal nowadayz and what not) to some sort of a meatgrinder war?
I usually love your writing albeit ficticious 98% of the time but WTF is this even about?
I really enjoy your posts, but in this one it became clear that you don't deeply understand current AI systems and how unreliable they still are. Where exactly is AI-related job displacement accelerating right now? The replacement will probably happen — but at a much smaller scale than you’re estimating.
also, large corporations are ring fencing their data on microsoft co pilot, which appallingly poor
Markets gonna crash bc of private credit. Not bc of unemployment. Data center spending goes brrrrr.. that's the bubble.
So the evidence that AI is taking everyone’s job is delinquencies? Isn’t the spike because of an expiration in the Covid moratorium? Attributing this to massive job losses that aren’t reported in the jobs data is a big leap
This takes longer to play out imo
The same could be said for literally everything Arthur posts. Dude consistently underestimates how long major changes like these (i.e., the type he's always predicting) take to play out.
The $557 billion write-down math is compelling, but the timeline assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Manufacturing job losses took decades post-WTO because physical supply chains are slow. Knowledge work disruption could be faster, sure, but corporate AI adoption is still in pilot-program purgatory at most companies. The real trigger isn't the job losses themselves, it's
the credit cycle that follows. Delinquent loan rates already hit their highest since 2017 and we haven't even started the white-collar layoff wave yet. If your model is right about the magnitude, the Fed doesn't wait for regional bank failures they front-run it. The question is whether BTC prices the printing before or after the credit event.
Very good point Arthur👍
This was interesting though too long as I am not an American. I am however emboldened to offer my counter fictitious take on how AI will destroy the market and how one man — Elon Musk, will save the day.
Rockets.
Rockets are the perfect way to slap AI on the wrist.
It works like this.
Thanks to all the cheap credit and the massive success of Teslas (turns out people love being entertained inside moving boxes without them touching the wheel), Elon Musk will soon be launching 1 million AI serves into space.
That's 1 million rocket launches into Space.
That's enough trial and error to build a primitive spaceship.
See, there is no way to repair those AI servers when they are in space. So
Elon knows its perhaps a shitty plan in the long run.
Hopefully, however, those AIs enjoy cost advantages from zero electricity bills so that Elon's true baby — Rocketry — will inch closer towards what he dreamed off when he built Blaster as a child.
Elon biggest play is with the rocket business.
Always has been.
It's like McDonalds. They sell decent hamburgers, true. But they love land a lot more.
If people start losing jobs because of AI, Elon might pack some platinum, palladium and gold on a rocket and take them to Mars. Starve the damned AI of resources. Rocket up prices.
This has gotten ridiculous and most people's imaginations have stopped already. So I'll stop here too.
But if the worst comes to the worst, the world doesn't collapse. Rockets do the trick.
Bankers will turn towards Rockets. Coz that is the truest leverage.
The Space race will return and instead of "maybe we actually put a human on the moon" we shall definitely put gold in space.
If too many bots or AI servers are made we could just ship these to Mars themselves. Keep them their until the market needs them.
Also, Rockets are the perfect reality check to get ya'll out of your dopamine fuelled cyber fugue. Ya'll need to touch grass, jet fuel, and an aluminum casting mallet.
Rockets rock.
Hi Arthur. Well, that all makes sense when you say it like that. I wouldn’t worry too much about the haters in the comments, lotta people got a lotta cognitive dissonance about being thrown on the scrap heap (at least they will be on the top of the heap so they can still look down upon their blue collar brothers). The flack is always heaviest when you are over the target!
if everyone is fired and there is not a lot of opportunity and tons of unemployment. Won't this technically mean that the government will be incentivized to send these unemployed males (and females since we're all equal nowadayz and what not) to some sort of a meatgrinder war?
afternoon Arthur
always enjoy the literature and your vantage
hope the skiing has been great and cheers to these wonderful times
ae
Clear thinking here. observability gap is one of those load-bearing details that determines whether something actually ships.
Expanded on this angle: https://credentials.substack.com/p/ai-coding-assistants-in-2026-the
You should narrate these posts. The white guy AI voice sucks