Always enjoy and look forward to a new essay from AH. I’m worried about the BTC miners for a variety of reasons and would love to hear your thoughts and whether I have legit concerns.
Ace article Arthur. I can't believe you're planning to partly exit in Q4 and re-enter in Q1 though, that's madness. I will be taking on some risk from now until pump, then holding on for the 2025-'coaster
How does the Fed cutting cycle play in? Perhaps aligns with Japan needing to liquidate stocks (usually stock market tanks after rate cuts begin, I know you guys know). Treasuries will be interesting to watch as Japan and foreign countries are selling but stock holders fly to safety in TLT.
Arthur, thanks for the article. Can you explain why you see RRP being drained by end of year? July QRA states how many tbills the treasury is selling, but netted with the tbills which are maturing, not clear to me why RRP balances goes down. Furthermore the Treasury stated a target end of year TGA balance of $700b — doesn’t seem likely to me that they would drain that especially in the wake of potential debt ceiling crisis in early 2025
Always enjoy and look forward to a new essay from AH. I’m worried about the BTC miners for a variety of reasons and would love to hear your thoughts and whether I have legit concerns.
Great piece, as always. Thanks Arthur!
Excellent Thanks for this analysis and sharing your knowledge!
Hey Arthur, amazing article as usual.
Ok, so the next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000, and $1 million Bitcoin is still your base case.
It begs the question : what about Ethereum ? What is the next step and your base case for it ? :)
Thank you very much. I always learn a ton... !!!
Ace article Arthur. I can't believe you're planning to partly exit in Q4 and re-enter in Q1 though, that's madness. I will be taking on some risk from now until pump, then holding on for the 2025-'coaster
How does the Fed cutting cycle play in? Perhaps aligns with Japan needing to liquidate stocks (usually stock market tanks after rate cuts begin, I know you guys know). Treasuries will be interesting to watch as Japan and foreign countries are selling but stock holders fly to safety in TLT.
Excellent essay, fun to read! Your perspective is greatly valued.
an interesting summary of ATI
You're very good Arthur.
the intro reminded me on "Iron Maiden's - rime of the ancient mariner"...
GFC 2008 Mutulaisation of Debt globally onto the people through the market.
2020 Covidnomics Recapitalisation of debt through debt creation on the public globally.
2024? War-economics
Arthur, thanks for the article. Can you explain why you see RRP being drained by end of year? July QRA states how many tbills the treasury is selling, but netted with the tbills which are maturing, not clear to me why RRP balances goes down. Furthermore the Treasury stated a target end of year TGA balance of $700b — doesn’t seem likely to me that they would drain that especially in the wake of potential debt ceiling crisis in early 2025