(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.) US Treasury Secretary Bad Gurl Janet Yellen and her simp cuck towel boy US Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell oscillate between decisive action and vague talking points. When they act, you best not fight them. But when they just talk, watch out because many market signals will point you down a path to sure losses.
BTFP is extensible for an additional calendar year, it's written into the language that created the program, so even if BTFP is shut down, banks have an additional year of "funding"
"Banks may refinance debt until the last day of the program in March, with a maximum repayment time of one year." Comments by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.
So every bank that cannot pay will refinance before the end of the program and kick the can down another year.
How does the thesis change if this is essentially a non-issue in the current timeline?
Pretty timely. No new loans starting March 11 2024. Per many comments here: Banks may refinance debt until the last day of the program in March, with a maximum repayment time of one year. Does the pure act of every bank refinancing before March do anything?
Don't think they are going to just let banks fail but we'll see. Seems like there is a big potential liquidity squeeze if Yellen announces a more coupon-heavy percentage in the QRA. And if Powell doesn't cut then we'll get some market commotion at least for awhile. But as you wrote there is some fat to trim off the bone since the S&P nearing 5000 so maybe this is deemed a good time to "let things go" for a bit.
Arthur, did I understand you correctly? Do you believe that the crowd of crypto enthusiasts is so rational and so shares your theories on the possible movement of capital in the future that they are now selling Bitcoin and buying put options, just like you? :)
BTFP is a nothing burger, anyone who is using it by Mar 11 can roll funding over for another year. They will shut it down but it will have no impact in 2024
BTFP is extensible for an additional calendar year, it's written into the language that created the program, so even if BTFP is shut down, banks have an additional year of "funding"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-will-let-emergency-loan-program-expire-top-official-says-9f32d1df
"Banks may refinance debt until the last day of the program in March, with a maximum repayment time of one year." Comments by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.
So every bank that cannot pay will refinance before the end of the program and kick the can down another year.
How does the thesis change if this is essentially a non-issue in the current timeline?
"I will load up on Solana and $WIF. Bonk is the last cycle’s doggy money, and if it ain’t Wif Hat, it ain’t shit." 🫳🎤
$MYRO
WIF
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-suddenly-kills-banks-free-money-bailout-fund-arbitrage-scheme
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240124a.htm
Pretty timely. No new loans starting March 11 2024. Per many comments here: Banks may refinance debt until the last day of the program in March, with a maximum repayment time of one year. Does the pure act of every bank refinancing before March do anything?
Don't think they are going to just let banks fail but we'll see. Seems like there is a big potential liquidity squeeze if Yellen announces a more coupon-heavy percentage in the QRA. And if Powell doesn't cut then we'll get some market commotion at least for awhile. But as you wrote there is some fat to trim off the bone since the S&P nearing 5000 so maybe this is deemed a good time to "let things go" for a bit.
Arthur, did I understand you correctly? Do you believe that the crowd of crypto enthusiasts is so rational and so shares your theories on the possible movement of capital in the future that they are now selling Bitcoin and buying put options, just like you? :)
BTFP is a nothing burger, anyone who is using it by Mar 11 can roll funding over for another year. They will shut it down but it will have no impact in 2024
can you share how/where to buy PUT options on BTC? Are you referring to the options for Bitcoin ETF?
Much like what everyone has said above - the 1 year extension to repayment of BTFP nullifies this thesis no ?
I fuckin love this
The closing ideas of "tactical trading" made me laugh like a anime villain
the Sol, Bonk, wif trinity is the play we all are thinking
Net inflow of $820B?
It's coming......
Says right here its done as of 3/11
https://www.federalreserve.gov/financial-stability/files/bank-term-funding-program-faqs.pdf
Page 4
Page 7 -
the Program was owned by the borrower as of March 12, 2023, consistent with the terms of the
Program
then they have 365 days to pay the loan back as it is a YEARLY loan
Advances will be made available to eligible borrowers for a term of up to one year.
But if for example ABC bank got a loan on FEB15th they maybe would not turn it in on the 10th and re-do it for the 111th of March ..